Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Paul comes mainly from surface fit and the combined serve & return profile, with recent performance at this level also weighing in. Paul’s Elo (1863.22) sits noticeably above Cerundolo’s (1799.59), and his surface strength index is marginally higher (23.84 vs 22.35). Paul has also played fewer minutes in the tournament (350 vs 521), a fatigue gap that favors fresher legs for a quick grass showdown. Those factors together account for most of the probability swing toward Paul. That said, Cerundolo brings a clear weapon: a superior mean return index (97.35 vs Paul’s 89.78), a difference larger than five points that suggests he’ll be unusually effective on return games even on fast grass. Serve indices are nearly identical (96.11 vs 96.08), so neither player holds a distinct serving rating advantage. Form and recent results are mixed — both come in with similar form indices (Cerundolo 61.23, Paul 61.59), but their match patterns differ: Paul has three straight wins in London all in straight sets and generally shorter matches, whereas Cerundolo has won three matches as well but with longer, more physically demanding contests.