Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Semifinals

Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
73%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #81
27%
Expected Total Games: 21.4
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #19 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #21 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-02-24

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #81 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #103 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #132 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #142 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #109 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 57.1
ELO Rating: 1948.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1685.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 136.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 15.3
Serve Rating: 77.5
Return Rating: 87.9

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 60.5
ELO Rating: 672.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1572.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 302.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (2-1) clay Santiago 132 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) clay Santiago 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (1-0) clay Santiago 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1-2) clay Rio 169 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (2-0) clay Rio 117 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Santiago semi-final on clay, Francisco Cerundolo is favored to get past Yannick Hanfmann in this ATP 250-level event. The model gives Cerundolo a 72.87% chance to win against Hanfmann’s 27.13%, with a predicted total of about 21.44 games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets finish is the likeliest outcome.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 19) with an Elo of 1948.2 and a solid form index (57.09). His surface strength index (12.46) is modest but better than Hanfmann’s (6.58). Cerundolo’s cumulative time on court this week is 136 minutes, so fatigue looks manageable. Hanfmann is ranked 81 with a much lower Elo (672.9) but a slightly higher form index (60.46); however his tournament fatigue is high at 302 minutes, reflecting several long matches in Santiago. Serve and return profiles diverge: Hanfmann posts a markedly higher mean serve index (97.79) versus Cerundolo’s 77.50 — a gap large enough to shape patterns on service points. Their mean return indices are closer (Cerundolo 87.87, Hanfmann 90.07), so Cerundolo’s return game remains a weapon despite Hanfmann’s serving edge. Over the last three matches, Cerundolo is 2-1 with two straight-set wins in Santiago and a prior loss in Rio; Hanfmann is on a three-match winning streak in Santiago but has accumulated wear from a 132-minute quarterfinal.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.4 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Yannick Hanfmann) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Yannick Hanfmann wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at about 10.57 total, while the predicted double faults total is roughly 4.47. On clay, slower conditions normally reduce ace production and can inflate unforced serving errors late in matches, so the expected aces are moderate and the expected double faults reflect possible fatigue effects. Given Hanfmann’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to supply a larger share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s superior ranking, much higher Elo and stronger return profile give him the clear edge, especially on clay where breaking serve matters more than raw serving power. Keep an eye on Hanfmann’s serve-to-error balance — if fatigue causes more double faults, it will be decisive.

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