Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Francisco Cerundolo vs Zhizhen Zhang: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #21
70%
VS

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #464
30%
Expected Total Games: 35.5
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 28.6
ELO Rating: 1961.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1658.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 14.6
Serve Rating: 71.4
Return Rating: 92.2

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 7.4
ELO Rating: 95.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 2.1
Grass: 2.0
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (1-2) hard Adelaide 148 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Paris 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Paris 146 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) hard Paris 76 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Vienna 65 min

Zhizhen Zhang

  • Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (1-2) hard Shanghai 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Beijing 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) hard Hangzhou 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-1) hard Hangzhou 167 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (1-2) hard Indian Wells 168 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Zhizhen Zhang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the Australian Open features Francisco Cerundolo and Zhizhen Zhang in the Round of 128. Both players will compete on hard courts, a surface that generally balances serving and returning abilities. The predicted winner is Francisco Cerundolo, with a win probability of 69.95%, while Zhizhen Zhang has a 30.05% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 35.53.

Match Analysis

Francisco Cerundolo enters the match ranked 21st, showcasing a considerably higher form index of 28.64 compared to Zhizhen Zhang's 7.38. Cerundolo’s Elo rating of 1961 indicates a strong competitive edge, while Zhang’s low Elo of 95 reflects his struggles on the ATP circuit. Both players show no signs of fatigue, as their cumulative minutes on court remain at 0. Cerundolo also has a significant advantage in surface strength, with a rating of 13.08 versus Zhang's 6.47. Notably, Cerundolo's mean serve index of 71.45 is notably higher than Zhang's 98.60, suggesting that while Zhang may have a stronger serve, the difference does not surpass the 5-point threshold to be particularly impactful. On returning, Cerundolo shines with a mean return index of 92.23 compared to Zhang’s 87.95, highlighting his ability to capitalize on Zhang's service games. In their recent performances, Cerundolo has had a mixed bag. His last match against Jaume Munar ended in a loss after a close contest, while he did secure a victory against Miomir Kecmanovic prior. In contrast, Zhang has struggled in his last three matches, failing to win any, with his last match against Sebastian Baez culminating in a loss. This recent trend suggests that Zhang may face significant challenges against a more formidable opponent like Cerundolo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.5 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match stands at approximately 12.6, with predicted double faults at around 3.65. Given the hard court surface, which balances the advantages of both powerful servers and proficient returners, we can anticipate a moderate number of aces throughout the match. With Cerundolo’s strong return index, he may exploit Zhang's serving inconsistencies, potentially leading to a higher number of breaks rather than aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.6 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.6 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Francisco Cerundolo holds a distinct advantage with his superior ranking, form, and return capabilities, which are likely to be decisive factors in the match. A key element to monitor will be how well Zhang can maintain his service games against a player like Cerundolo, who has shown the ability to capitalize on return opportunities effectively.

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