Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Francisco Cerundolo vs Zhizhen Zhang: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #21
70%
VS

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #464
30%
Expected Total Games: 35.5
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 28.6
ELO Rating: 1961.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1658.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 14.6
Serve Rating: 71.4
Return Rating: 92.2

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 7.4
ELO Rating: 95.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 2.1
Grass: 2.0
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo

Zhizhen Zhang

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Zhizhen Zhang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the Australian Open features Francisco Cerundolo and Zhizhen Zhang in the Round of 128. Both players will compete on hard courts, a surface that generally balances serving and returning abilities. The predicted winner is Francisco Cerundolo, with a win probability of 69.95%, while Zhizhen Zhang has a 30.05% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 35.53.

Match Analysis

Francisco Cerundolo enters the match ranked 21st, showcasing a considerably higher form index of 28.64 compared to Zhizhen Zhang's 7.38. Cerundolo’s Elo rating of 1961 indicates a strong competitive edge, while Zhang’s low Elo of 95 reflects his struggles on the ATP circuit. Both players show no signs of fatigue, as their cumulative minutes on court remain at 0. Cerundolo also has a significant advantage in surface strength, with a rating of 13.08 versus Zhang's 6.47. Notably, Cerundolo's mean serve index of 71.45 is notably higher than Zhang's 98.60, suggesting that while Zhang may have a stronger serve, the difference does not surpass the 5-point threshold to be particularly impactful. On returning, Cerundolo shines with a mean return index of 92.23 compared to Zhang’s 87.95, highlighting his ability to capitalize on Zhang's service games. In their recent performances, Cerundolo has had a mixed bag. His last match against Jaume Munar ended in a loss after a close contest, while he did secure a victory against Miomir Kecmanovic prior. In contrast, Zhang has struggled in his last three matches, failing to win any, with his last match against Sebastian Baez culminating in a loss. This recent trend suggests that Zhang may face significant challenges against a more formidable opponent like Cerundolo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.5 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Francisco Cerundolo versus Zhizhen Zhang. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Francisco Cerundolo versus Zhizhen Zhang. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Zhizhen Zhang) +1.2 Most likely spread: +1 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Francisco Cerundolo versus Zhizhen Zhang. Positive values indicate Francisco Cerundolo winning more games, negative values indicate Zhizhen Zhang winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Francisco Cerundolo versus Zhizhen Zhang. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match stands at approximately 12.6, with predicted double faults at around 3.65. Given the hard court surface, which balances the advantages of both powerful servers and proficient returners, we can anticipate a moderate number of aces throughout the match. With Cerundolo’s strong return index, he may exploit Zhang's serving inconsistencies, potentially leading to a higher number of breaks rather than aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.6 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.6 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Francisco Cerundolo versus Zhizhen Zhang. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Francisco Cerundolo versus Zhizhen Zhang. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Francisco Cerundolo versus Zhizhen Zhang. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Francisco Cerundolo versus Zhizhen Zhang. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Francisco Cerundolo holds a distinct advantage with his superior ranking, form, and return capabilities, which are likely to be decisive factors in the match. A key element to monitor will be how well Zhang can maintain his service games against a player like Cerundolo, who has shown the ability to capitalize on return opportunities effectively.

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