Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Gauthier Onclin vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction

Gauthier Onclin

Rank: #178
31%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #58
69%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Jan-Lennard Struff

Why the Model Favors Jan-Lennard Struff

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +11.5 Jan-Lennard Struff
Surface fit +4.7 Jan-Lennard Struff
Overall strength +4.5 Jan-Lennard Struff
Age +4.1 Gauthier Onclin
Overall record & opposition quality +2.9 Jan-Lennard Struff

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Jan-Lennard Struff. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Gauthier Onclin

  • Current #178 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #178 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #246 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #269 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #205 2025-10-20

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #58 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #81 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #86 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #91 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Gauthier Onclin

Form Index: 32.9
ELO Rating: 1480.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1509.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 235.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 9.4
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 91.5

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 51.9
ELO Rating: 1704.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 93.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.7
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 31.5
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 85.1

Recent Matches

Gauthier Onclin
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Gauthier Onclin
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jan-Lennard Struff is favoured in the Brussels Round of 16, with a 69% chance of winning to Gauthier Onclin’s 31%. The match is projected to last 22.9 games.

Match Analysis

Struff arrives with the sharper recent results, beating Marcos Giron in Brussels after taking a set from Daniil Medvedev in Shanghai. Onclin lost to Clement Chidekh in his latest match, following a win over Harry Wendelken, leaving him with less consistent recent form. Struff’s higher ranking and stronger hard-court fit reinforce that advantage. He has also spent considerably less time on court in Brussels, 93 minutes to Onclin’s 235. Onclin has the stronger return profile, however, which gives him a way to put pressure on Struff’s service games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Gauthier Onclin - Jan-Lennard Struff) -2.5 Most likely spread: -3 (Jan-Lennard Struff wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Struff is projected for 8.6 aces and 2.6 double faults, compared with 3.7 aces and 2.2 double faults for Onclin. Their serve levels are close, but Struff’s stronger overall profile supports the larger ace expectation, while the double-fault estimates remain similar.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.1 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Gauthier Onclin 3.7 + Jan-Lennard Struff 8.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Gauthier Onclin 2.2 + Jan-Lennard Struff 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Gauthier Onclin

Expected 3.7 aces

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 8.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Gauthier Onclin

Expected 2.2 double faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Gauthier Onclin's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (46.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Onclin’s return is the clearest way to unsettle the forecast. If he can use it to make Struff work through service games, the gap in recent form and ranking may count for less.

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