Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #123
44%
VS

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Rank: #58
56%
Expected Total Games: 29.2
Predicted Winner: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #123 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #90 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #73 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #57 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #57 2025-05-05

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

  • Current #58 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #57 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #59 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #42 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #36 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1566.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 187.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.6
Clay: 22.7
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 94.2

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 1517.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.3
Clay: 9.7
Grass: 10.2
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 80.8

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000, round of 128 on clay, Jacob Fearnley meets Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in a matchup that contrasts a rising clay performer with a bigger-name server. The model gives Perricard the edge — predicted winner Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (55.71%) over Jacob Fearnley (44.29%) — with an expected total of about 29.2 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fearnley (rank 123) arrives with a higher Elo (1566.7) and stronger clay form indicators: a form index of 41.66 and a surface strength index of 22.70, reflecting recent success in Rome. He also carries 187 minutes of fatigue accumulated in the event from two recent wins, which may matter physically on demanding clay. Perricard (rank 58) has a lower Elo (1516.6) and a lower form index (35.25) and surface strength index (9.66), but he comes into the match fresh with zero minutes logged in this tournament. Serve and return profiles paint a nuanced picture. Both players have high serve indices (Fearnley 95.08, Perricard 97.23), a small gap not large enough to be decisive by itself. Fearnley’s mean return index (94.17) is substantially higher than Perricard’s (80.79), a difference greater than five points that favors Fearnley in extended rallies and on return games. Recent results underline the contrast: Fearnley has won his last two matches in Rome (including a three-set win over Kovacevic), while Perricard’s last three recorded outings were losses on hard courts. That sequence suggests Fearnley’s clay momentum versus Perricard’s freshness and higher ranking.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 29.2 Most likely outcome: 29 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jacob Fearnley - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Jacob Fearnley wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 11.86 for the match, while the expected double faults total is roughly 4.58. On clay, predicted aces are generally lower because the slower surface and high bounce reduce outright service winners; this informs the predicted aces figure. Expected double faults are elevated slightly by the surface’s longer rallies and physical wear. Perricard’s marginally higher serve index could add a few more service winners, but the gap is not large enough to dramatically alter the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.2 Most likely: 5 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jacob Fearnley's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (37.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Perricard’s edge comes from ranking, freshness and a slightly stronger serve profile, while Fearnley’s superior return and recent clay form keep this contest tight. The key factor to watch will be how well Perricard holds serve under pressure and whether Fearnley can convert return opportunities early in sets.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel