Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mariano Navone

Rank: #72
43%
VS

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #80
57%
Expected Total Games: 36.6
Predicted Winner: Hamad Medjedovic

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Ranking Trends

Mariano Navone

  • Current #72 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #85 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #76 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #85 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #47 2025-01-13

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Current #80 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #67 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #72 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #61 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 0.5
ELO Rating: 730.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.7
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 60.0
Return Rating: 85.7

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 48.2
ELO Rating: 772.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.3
Clay: 18.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 93.1

Recent Matches

Mariano Navone
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Hamad Medjedovic
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mariano Navone
vs
0
Hamad Medjedovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open, held on hard courts, Mariano Navone faces Hamad Medjedovic in a pivotal match that could set the tone for their tournament run. The predicted winner is Hamad Medjedovic, with a 57.01% chance of victory compared to Navone's 42.99%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 36.58, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Mariano Navone, currently ranked 72, has a form index of 47.88 and an Elo rating of 730.52. His surface strength index stands at 3.65, reflecting a moderate capability on hard courts. He exhibits a mean serve index of 59.98 and a mean return index of 85.71. In contrast, Hamad Medjedovic, ranked 80, boasts a higher Elo rating of 772.23, with a form index of 48.18. Medjedovic's mean serve index is significantly stronger at 98.52, while his mean return index of 93.12 also surpasses Navone's by more than 5 points. Both players show no current fatigue, indicating they are physically prepared for this match. In their recent performances, Navone has struggled, losing two of his last three matches, with his most recent outing resulting in a defeat against Alex Michelsen. His inability to secure victories raises questions about his current form. On the other hand, Medjedovic's recent results are mixed, having won one match and lost two in Auckland. However, his recent victory against Aleksandar Kovacevic demonstrates his potential to perform under pressure, which could be crucial in this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.6 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mariano Navone - Hamad Medjedovic) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 16.26 aces, with a prediction of approximately 5.74 double faults. Given that hard courts tend to favor both powerful servers and strong returners, the anticipated ace count reflects the players' capabilities, particularly Medjedovic's high serve index. His ability to serve effectively may lead to a higher ace count, while the expected double faults prediction suggests both players will need to maintain their composure to avoid unnecessary errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.3 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hamad Medjedovic's edge in serve and return statistics, alongside a stronger Elo rating, positions him as the favored player in this matchup. Observers should pay close attention to Medjedovic’s serving performance, as it could significantly influence the match outcome.

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