Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Holger Rune vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction

Holger Rune

Rank: #8
75%
VS

Nicolas Jarry

Rank: #143
25%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

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Ranking Trends

Holger Rune

  • Current #8 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #12 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #13 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #14 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #15 2024-07-01

Nicolas Jarry

  • Current #143 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #58 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #35 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #29 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #20 2024-07-01

Player Metrics

Holger Rune

Form Index: 57.6
ELO Rating: 2374.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1838.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 22.8
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 85.2

Nicolas Jarry

Form Index: 78.0
ELO Rating: 1086.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 9.4
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 83.9

Recent Matches

Holger Rune
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Nicolas Jarry
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lukas Klein (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jozef Kovalik (2-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Pavel Kotov (2-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (0-2) grass Halle 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) grass Halle 61 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Holger Rune
vs
0
Nicolas Jarry
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at Wimbledon 2025, Holger Rune faces Nicolas Jarry in what promises to be an intriguing match on grass. Rune, currently ranked 8th, is favored to win with a probability of 74.76%, while Jarry, ranked 143rd, has a win probability of 25.24%. The predicted total number of games played is 38.

Match Analysis

Holger Rune showcases remarkable statistics with an Elo rating of 2374.71, a form index of 57.55, and a surface strength index of 22.79, indicating strong adaptability on grass. His mean serve index stands at 97.09, significantly higher than Jarry’s 95.98, revealing a solid serving capability. Rune’s mean return index is also superior at 85.24 compared to Jarry’s 83.95, providing him an advantage in returning Jarry's serves. In contrast, Nicolas Jarry's form index is notably higher at 77.97, reflecting recent success, but his overall rank and fatigue level of 522 minutes could impede his performance. Over their last three matches, Rune has had a mixed bag of results, winning one out of three, including a close loss to Roberto Bautista Agut in his last encounter. Jarry, on the other hand, has been in impressive form, winning all three of his recent matches at Wimbledon without dropping a set, showcasing strong momentum heading into this match.

Final Prediction

Holger Rune's higher rank and superior serving and returning indices provide him with a considerable edge over Nicolas Jarry. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Rune's serve, as Jarry's ability to respond to it will greatly influence the match's outcome.

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