Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #34
48%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
52%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Why the Model Favors Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.0 Hubert Hurkacz
Overall strength +2.9 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Recent form +1.4 Hubert Hurkacz
Recent record by level +0.8 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Surface fit +0.7 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #34 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #74 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #83 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #78 2025-09-29

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #26 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #14 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 72.9
ELO Rating: 1861.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1810.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 270.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.0
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 87.4

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 62.6
ELO Rating: 1855.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1808.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 238.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.1
Clay: 24.9
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Yi Zhou (2-1) hard Shanghai 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Novak Djokovic (2-0) hard Shanghai 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Shanghai 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-1) hard Beijing 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Beijing 92 min

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Davidovich Fokina is a narrow pick, with a 52% chance of winning against Hurkacz’s 48%. The forecast points to a competitive match lasting about 24.9 games.

Match Analysis

Hurkacz’s serve is the clearest counterweight: his serving is stronger, and that part of his game is the biggest factor in his favor. He has also won all three of his Shanghai matches, including a straight-sets win over Novak Djokovic, making his recent form a positive. Davidovich Fokina is favored despite that, with the stronger overall profile and a slight edge as a returner. He beat Frances Tiafoe in three sets in his latest match, after a straight-sets win over Jenson Brooksby. He is ranked 26th, compared with Hurkacz at 34th.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) -0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hurkacz is projected for 11.8 aces, against 5.4 for Davidovich Fokina, reflecting Hurkacz’s stronger serving profile. The double-fault estimates are close, at 2.0 for Hurkacz and 1.8 for Davidovich Fokina. The hard court’s consistent bounce gives both a steady platform, but Hurkacz’s greater serve strength points to the higher ace total.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.2 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 11.8 + Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 5.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 1.9 + Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 11.8 aces

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 5.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 1.9 double faults

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hubert Hurkacz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hurkacz’s serve is the main weapon that could overturn the narrow forecast. If it keeps generating free points, Davidovich Fokina’s return advantage may not be enough.

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