Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Hubert Hurkacz vs Aleksandar Kovacevic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #73
46%
VS

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #75
54%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Aleksandar Kovacevic

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #73 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #73 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #68 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-03-03

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current #75 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #60 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #71 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #76 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #94 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 16.3
ELO Rating: 763.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1736.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 81.0
Return Rating: 20.8

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 35.5
ELO Rating: 860.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 98.7
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Dubai 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Damm (0-2) hard Montpellier 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Aleksandar Kovacevic
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (CA, U.S.A.), Round of 128 on outdoor hard courts in a Masters 1000 event, Aleksandar Kovacevic is narrowly favored to progress. The model predicts Kovacevic to win with a 54.45% probability versus Hubert Hurkacz at 45.55%, and expects a relatively short match totaling about 24.34 games.

Match Analysis

Hurkacz arrives ranked 73 with an Elo of 763.90 and a form index of 16.31; his surface strength index is 6.63 and fatigue reads 0.0 minutes. Kovacevic is ranked 75 but carries a stronger Elo of 860.32 and a higher form index of 35.51; his surface strength index is 6.97 and he also shows zero tournament fatigue. The gap in mean serve index is meaningful — Kovacevic at 98.67 versus Hurkacz at 81.00 — and the difference in mean return index is even larger, with Kovacevic 86.81 against Hurkacz 20.81. Those disparities point to Kovacevic holding clear edges on both serve and return metrics. Recent form underlines the contrast: Hurkacz has lost his last three matches on hard courts (Dubai, Rotterdam, Montpellier), failing to take a match in those outings. Kovacevic’s last three results on hard courts are mixed — a straight-sets win over Adam Walton, and two losses in tougher matches versus Frances Tiafoe and Zachary Svajda — but his recent deeper match in Acapulco (138 minutes) and a higher Elo suggest greater momentum and match-level resilience.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Aleksandar Kovacevic) -0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this matchup sits at about 12.97 total aces, with a predicted aces skew toward Kovacevic given his substantially higher serve index. The double faults prediction is modest: expected double faults of roughly 5.16 for the match. On medium-paced hard courts, these predicted aces and expected double faults align with a surface that rewards big servers while keeping ace numbers lower than grass.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kovacevic’s higher Elo, stronger serve and return indices, and better recent form give him a narrow edge in this first-round meeting. The key factor to watch will be Kovacevic’s serve-return duel: if his serve holds up and his return pressure continues, he should control the tempo.

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