Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #63
30%
VS

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #9
70%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #63 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #55 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #76 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #38 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-04-21

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #9 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #5 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #8 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #7 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #11 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 1598.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 73.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.7
Clay: 43.0
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 80.6
Return Rating: 47.3

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 44.2
ELO Rating: 1854.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1898.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 61.8
Clay: 49.4
Grass: 47.4
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 90.9

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Lorenzo Musetti
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Lorenzo Musetti
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Madrid Masters 1000, round of 64 on clay, Lorenzo Musetti is favored to progress against Hubert Hurkacz. The model gives Musetti a 69.87% chance to win versus 30.13% for Hurkacz, with a predicted total of about 23.02 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper this is a clash of styles and recent form. Hurkacz sits at world No. 63 with a solid serve profile (mean serve index 80.57) and an Elo around 1598; his form index is 52.9 but his surface strength on clay is modest (42.95) and he arrives with 73 minutes already on court this week. Musetti, ranked No. 9 with an Elo of 1854, posts a lower form index (44.22) but a stronger clay aptitude (49.43) and no accumulated fatigue from this event. The serving and returning gaps are notable and likely decisive: Musetti’s mean serve index (97.34) is substantially higher than Hurkacz’s (difference ~16.8), and his mean return index (90.85) towers over Hurkacz’s 47.27 (difference ~43.6). Those disparities point to Musetti’s greater all-court threat on both serve and return despite a slightly lower recent form reading. Over their last three outings Hurkacz has two wins and a deep, draining 173-minute loss in Monte Carlo; Musetti comes off two wins and a recent loss to Arthur Fils in Barcelona, showing match rhythm but also some vulnerability.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Hubert Hurkacz wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay encounter is modest: the match is expected to produce about 16.73 predicted aces, while the expected double faults tally sits near 6.69. Clay typically reduces ace numbers because of slower ball speed and higher bounce, and that surface context tempers Musetti’s big-serve advantage—though his significantly higher serve rating should still lift the ace count relative to a neutral baseline. The double faults prediction reflects clay’s longer rallies and potential late-match fatigue.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.7 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Musetti’s edge comes from superior Elo, a markedly stronger return game and a much higher serve index, which together outweigh Hurkacz’s raw serving quality on a slower surface. Watch Musetti’s early return aggression and whether Hurkacz can shorten points with his serve; that matchup dynamic will decide the tie.

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