Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Hubert Hurkacz vs Yi Zhou Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #34
71%
VS

Yi Zhou

Rank: #277
29%
Expected Total Games: 27.1
Predicted Winner: Hubert Hurkacz

Why the Model Favors Hubert Hurkacz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.7 Hubert Hurkacz
Overall strength +7.4 Hubert Hurkacz
Recent form +5.6 Hubert Hurkacz
Age +3.8 Yi Zhou
Overall record & opposition quality +3.1 Hubert Hurkacz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for Hubert Hurkacz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #34 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #74 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #83 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #78 2025-09-29

Yi Zhou

  • Current #277 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #240 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #220 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #248 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #308 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 70.4
ELO Rating: 1851.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1805.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 169.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.1
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 87.4

Yi Zhou

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 1577.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1581.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 312.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.3
Clay: 8.4
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 84.6

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Novak Djokovic (2-0) hard Shanghai 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Shanghai 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-1) hard Beijing 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Beijing 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Gea (2-1) hard Beijing 143 min

Yi Zhou
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Yi Zhou
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hurkacz is favored in Shanghai’s Round of 32, with the forecast giving him 71% to Zhou’s 29%. The match is projected to last 27.1 games, suggesting Zhou could make this a competitive contest.

Match Analysis

Hurkacz’s advantage starts with the serve-return balance. Both players have strong serves, but Hurkacz is the better returner, giving him more ways to influence points when he is not serving. Their rankings, No. 34 for Hurkacz and No. 277 for Zhou, reflect a wider gap in overall strength. Hurkacz has won both of his Shanghai matches in straight sets, including against Novak Djokovic. Zhou has momentum too, with wins over Mattia Bellucci and Lorenzo Musetti, though both took three sets. He has spent 312 minutes on court this tournament, compared with 169 for Hurkacz, making the workload another point in the Pole’s favor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.1 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Yi Zhou) +2.5 Most likely spread: +2 (Hubert Hurkacz wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hurkacz is projected to hit 12.1 aces and 2.3 double faults, while Zhou is projected for 7.8 aces and 2.0 double faults. Both have strong serve profiles, but Hurkacz’s is stronger, supporting the larger ace forecast on hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.1 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 12.1 + Yi Zhou 7.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 2.3 + Yi Zhou 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 12.1 aces

Yi Zhou

Expected 7.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 2.3 double faults

Yi Zhou

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hubert Hurkacz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (51.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Zhou’s recent wins over Musetti and Bellucci offer a route to an upset. If he can maintain that level and keep Hurkacz from controlling return points, the forecast could tighten.

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