Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #83
64%
VS

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #42
36%
Expected Total Games: 37.7
Predicted Winner: Hubert Hurkacz

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #83 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #76 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #38 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-01-13

Zizou Bergs

  • Current #42 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #40 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #52 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #50 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 44.6
ELO Rating: 710.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1755.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.2
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 74.8
Return Rating: 23.7

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 40.8
ELO Rating: 1193.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1578.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 9.3
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 96.9

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Zizou Bergs
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Zizou Bergs
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Hubert Hurkacz and Zizou Bergs in the Round of 128 at the Australian Open promises to be an engaging encounter on hard courts. Hurkacz is favored to win with a probability of 63.87%, while Bergs has a 36.13% chance. The expected total number of games in the match is 37.7, indicating a competitive showdown.

Match Analysis

Hubert Hurkacz, currently ranked 83, has a form index of 44.61 and an Elo rating of 710. His surface strength index stands at 7.18, reflecting a moderate capability on hard courts. In comparison, Zizou Bergs, ranked 42, boasts a higher Elo rating of 1193 and a surface strength index of 10.01, indicating a solid performance on this surface. Notably, there is a significant gap in their mean serve indices, with Bergs at 98.23, while Hurkacz is at 74.83, highlighting Bergs' superior serving ability. Moreover, Bergs also excels in return game with a mean return index of 96.86, compared to Hurkacz's 23.69, emphasizing his prowess on returns. In their recent performances, Hurkacz secured a convincing win against Roberto Bautista Agut, while his earlier matches on clay saw him struggle against higher-ranked opponents. Conversely, Bergs lost to Jannik Sinner in his last match, after previously winning against Alex Michelsen. His recent form reflects inconsistency, especially against stronger players.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.7 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Zizou Bergs) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Zizou Bergs wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature approximately 19.95 aces and 5.0 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which typically balances serve and return play, fans can anticipate a moderate number of aces. Bergs’ significantly higher mean serve index suggests he will be a key contributor to the aces prediction, while both players may need to manage their double faults carefully to maintain service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.9 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz is positioned as the predicted winner due to his recent positive momentum and experience, despite a lower rank. The key factor to observe will be how Bergs' strong serving and returning capabilities play out against Hurkacz's overall game strategy, especially on the hard court surface.

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