Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Khachanov arrives as the clear higher-ranked player (No. 15) with an Elo of 1708.46 and a form index of 42.13, while Gaston is ranked 118 with an Elo of 1491.41 and a lower form index of 23.33. Gaston’s cumulative fatigue at this event is 138 minutes on court versus Khachanov’s zero, which may matter across longer exchanges on clay. Surface strength favors Khachanov (surface index 27.34) over Gaston (6.05), indicating a sizeable comfort gap on clay. Serving metrics are similar—mean serve indices are virtually identical—so there’s no big serve advantage on paper. However, Gaston’s mean return index (93.81) is noticeably higher than Khachanov’s (86.23), a difference greater than five points that suggests Gaston can be a persistent break threat despite his lower rank. Recent form tells a coherent story: Gaston is 1–2 in his last three matches here and in Rome (wins over Marko Topo, losses to Ignacio Buse and Andrea Pellegrino), while Khachanov is 2–1 (wins over Dino Prizmic and Botic van de Zandschulp, a loss to Casper Ruud). Khachanov’s results include several long matches, indicating match toughness without current tournament fatigue.