Ignacio Buse vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Moutet (rank 31) arrives with the higher Elo (1678.11) and a slightly stronger recent form index (47.55) compared with Buse (rank 61, Elo 1560.99, form 44.24). Both players show no tournament fatigue (0.0 minutes on court), but surface strength indices are modest for each — Moutet 41.94, Buse 39.28 — indicating neither is a clay specialist on paper. The gap in mean serve index is large: Moutet’s 97.03 versus Buse’s 68.69 (a difference >5), and Moutet also enjoys a markedly superior mean return index (90.91) against Buse’s 72.50 (difference >5). Those serve/return disparities are central to the matchup dynamics. Recent form tells a mixed story. Buse has one standout win in the last three — a long 2-1 victory over Matteo Berrettini in Marrakech — but followed by two straight losses in Marrakech and Monte Carlo, with long match times (181, 149, 123 minutes) suggesting heavy recent court time though not logged here as tournament fatigue. Moutet’s last three are patchy as well: a solid straight-set win over Alexandre Muller (81 minutes) bookended by defeats to Marco Trungelliti and Casper Ruud (155 and 104 minutes). Both players have shown the ability to grind out long matches, but Moutet’s higher ranking and Elo give him the edge.