Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Daniel Altmaier vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #65
49%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #36
51%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Ignacio Buse

Why the Model Favors Ignacio Buse

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +2.6 Daniel Altmaier
Overall record & opposition quality +1.7 Ignacio Buse
Age +1.6 Ignacio Buse
Surface fit +1.5 Daniel Altmaier
Serve & return game +1.3 Ignacio Buse

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 51% for Ignacio Buse. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 48.4
ELO Rating: 1615.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1636.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.5
Clay: 20.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.0

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 31.0
ELO Rating: 1613.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1707.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 118.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.5
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier

Ignacio Buse

  • Last Match: vs Adam Walton (2-1) hard Winston Salem 118 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Adam Walton (0-2) hard Cincinnati 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) clay Kitzbuhel 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Kilian Feldbausch (2-1) clay Kitzbuhel 114 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Round of 16 on hard courts at an atp_250 event. The model projects Ignacio Buse to win this one, but the margin is razor thin. Predicted winner: Ignacio Buse (51.46%). Daniel Altmaier is close behind at 48.54%. The match is expected to be relatively short by games with an expected total of 24.54 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Buse is narrow and driven mainly by overall record and opposition quality and by age, while Altmaier gains ground from recent form and slightly better surface fit. Altmaier is ranked 65 with a form index of 48.35 and an Elo of 1615.17. He has spent 95 minutes on court in this event so far and posts a surface strength index of 17.45. Buse sits higher in the rankings at 36, but has a lower form index at 31.03 and an Elo of 1613.24. He has accumulated 118 minutes on court and a surface strength index of 17.55. Serve and return profiles are similar. Altmaier’s mean serve index is 96.08 and Buse’s is 95.31, a gap under 5 points. Return indices are close as well, 87.02 for Altmaier and 88.72 for Buse. Recent match patterns underline the fine margins. Altmaier arrived here with two wins in his last three, beating Francisco Comesana and Coleman Wong and losing to Lorenzo Musetti. Those results feed the recent form boost noted by the model. Buse has one win in his last three at this event, defeating Adam Walton, but he also has earlier losses to Walton and Cameron Norrie. Those mixed results help explain why the projection leans only slightly toward Buse.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Daniel Altmaier versus Ignacio Buse. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Daniel Altmaier versus Ignacio Buse. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Altmaier - Ignacio Buse) -0.7 Most likely spread: -1 (Ignacio Buse wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Daniel Altmaier versus Ignacio Buse. Positive values indicate Daniel Altmaier winning more games, negative values indicate Ignacio Buse winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Daniel Altmaier versus Ignacio Buse. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction shows a match total of 12.96 expected aces, split into 7.31 for Altmaier and 5.91 for Buse. The expected double faults total is 5.63, with 3.11 for Altmaier and 2.54 for Buse. Hard courts are medium paced and tend to produce a moderate number of aces, which matches the predicted aces total. With serve ratings so close, per player predicted aces reflect a small edge for Altmaier at 7.31 versus Buse at 5.91.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Daniel Altmaier 7.3 + Ignacio Buse 5.9
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Daniel Altmaier 3.1 + Ignacio Buse 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Daniel Altmaier versus Ignacio Buse. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Daniel Altmaier versus Ignacio Buse. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 7.3 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Daniel Altmaier serves in this match.
Ignacio Buse

Expected 5.9 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Ignacio Buse serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Daniel Altmaier versus Ignacio Buse. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Daniel Altmaier versus Ignacio Buse. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 3.1 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Daniel Altmaier serves in this match.
Ignacio Buse

Expected 2.5 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Ignacio Buse serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniel Altmaier's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (30.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Daniel Altmaier's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Buse’s slim projected advantage rests on overall record and age as modeled contributors, but recent form is the single strongest factor and it favors Altmaier. Watch fatigue and match length as the key variable. If Buse can stay sharp late in matches, he should hold the narrow edge.

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