Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Ignacio Buse vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #98
32%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #35
68%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

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Ranking Trends

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #98 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #110 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #140 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #171 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #234 2025-02-10

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #35 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 635.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1527.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 154.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.4
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 50.8
Return Rating: 55.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 43.3
ELO Rating: 1283.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1675.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 94.1

Recent Matches

Ignacio Buse
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Sebastian Baez
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ignacio Buse
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 in Buenos Aires (Argentina), a clay 250-level event, features Ignacio Buse against Sebastián Báez. The model favors Báez to win (68.38%) over Buse (31.62%), with a projected total of about 22.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Báez arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 35) with a substantially higher Elo (1,283.46 vs 635.04). His mean serve index (97.23) and mean return index (94.06) both markedly exceed Buse’s (serve 50.77, return 55.87), differences well over 5 points and indicative of a clear advantage on both service and return performance. Buse is ranked 98, shows a stronger recent form index (53.16 vs Báez’s 43.26) but carries 154 minutes of tournament court time, whereas Báez shows zero accumulated fatigue in this event. Recent match patterns diverge: Buse’s last three matches include a win in Buenos Aires over Francesco Passaro (two sets to one) and earlier losses on hard courts to Arthur Fery and Ben Shelton, with long match times suggesting wear. Báez’s recent results show mixed outcomes on hard courts, including a five-set win and a four-set loss at a major; overall his results and much higher Elo point to greater baseline consistency and higher-level results across events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ignacio Buse - Sebastian Baez) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Sebastian Baez wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: the predicted aces total is 6.72, while the expected double faults are 4.11. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, and expected double faults can rise with longer rallies and fatigue. Given Báez’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to account for a large share of the predicted aces, though the surface will still temper raw ace numbers.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Báez’s edge comes from superior Elo, ranking and dominant serve/return metrics, combined with minimal in-tournament fatigue. The key factor to watch is how effectively Báez converts his serve and return advantages into quick holds; if his serve efficiency holds, the match should stay short and favor him.

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