Jacob Fearnley vs Jaume Munar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Munar comes mainly from recent form and recent record at this level — those factors together shift the probability strongly toward him. Munar arrives with the higher Elo (1635 vs 1560) and a much higher ranking (44 to 159), supportive of the “overall strength” advantage the model sees. His surface strength index on grass (20.53) also outpaces Fearnley’s (12.66), which matters at Wimbledon where adaptation to low, fast bounces is crucial. Looking closer at match-to-match form, Munar won his last Wimbledon match 3-0 against Francisco Cerúndolo, while Fearnley’s most recent victory was a five-set win over Alex Michelsen; that resilience is notable but sits atop two straight losses on clay prior to Wimbledon. Both players show nearly identical fatigue from the tournament (174 minutes). On serve and return, the mean serve indices are very close (95.96 Munar vs 95.36 Fearnley), so there’s no big serving gap, but Fearnley’s mean return index is meaningfully higher (94.44 vs 87.95, a >5-point difference), which gives him the best chance to trouble Munar’s service games. Last three matches summary: Fearnley — one dramatic five-set win at Wimbledon, plus two recent clay losses; Munar — a straight-sets Wimbledon victory bookended by two earlier grass losses. Those patterns feed into the prediction: Munar’s recent high-level wins and overall rating edge outweigh Fearnley’s return strength.