Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #18
79%
VS

Jurij Rodionov

Rank: #143
21%
Expected Total Games: 40.7
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Why the Model Favors Jakub Mensik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +11.1 Jakub Mensik
Overall strength +5.4 Jakub Mensik
Surface fit +4.5 Jakub Mensik
Overall record & opposition quality +3.2 Jakub Mensik
Serve & return game +2.2 Jakub Mensik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 79% for Jakub Mensik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #18 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #27 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #12 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-08-25

Jurij Rodionov

  • Current #143 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #158 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #177 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #178 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #154 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 55.7
ELO Rating: 1830.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1863.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.4
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.8

Jurij Rodionov

Form Index: 82.6
ELO Rating: 1666.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1617.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.5
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 93.8
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Jurij Rodionov
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Jurij Rodionov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the US Open in New York, in a round of 64 match on hard courts, Jakub Mensik is the clear favorite to advance. The model projects Mensik to win with 79.49 percent probability versus 20.51 percent for Jurij Rodionov. The match is expected to be about 40.72 games in total.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Mensik comes mainly from recent record by level, which adds 11.1 percentage points to his chances, and is supported by his overall strength and surface fit. Mensik is ranked 18 with an Elo of 1830.62, a form index of 55.74, and a surface strength index of 38.40. Rodionov sits at rank 143 with Elo 1666.05, a higher form index of 82.56, but a weaker surface strength index of 21.47. Fatigue is a pronounced factor. Mensik enters after 174 minutes on court in this event. Rodionov carries 696 minutes of cumulative court time, which the model treats as a substantial disadvantage for him. Overall strength, overall record and opposition quality, and the serve and return game also tilt toward Mensik. His mean serve index is 96.94 and his mean return index is 88.77. Rodionov posts 93.76 on serve and 86.77 on return. The serve and return gap is modest so both players can produce service games, but Mensik’s higher Elo and surface fit compound his edge. In recent form, Mensik has two wins and one loss in his last three matches, including a straight sets win at this event. Rodionov has won his last three matches at the US Open, but those wins come alongside heavy minutes and higher fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.7 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jakub Mensik - Jurij Rodionov) +3.5 Most likely spread: +3 (Jakub Mensik wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for 20.25 total aces in the match, with predicted aces split of 13.83 for Mensik and 6.93 for Rodionov. The double faults prediction is for 8.46 total, with expected double faults of 4.81 for Mensik and 3.66 for Rodionov. On hard courts, a medium paced surface with a consistent bounce, these predicted aces and double faults fit the profile of strong servers who also face steady returns.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 20.2 Most likely: 18 aces Per player: Jakub Mensik 13.8 + Jurij Rodionov 6.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.5 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Jakub Mensik 4.8 + Jurij Rodionov 3.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jakub Mensik

Expected 13.8 aces

Jurij Rodionov

Expected 6.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jakub Mensik

Expected 4.8 double faults

Jurij Rodionov

Expected 3.7 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

54.7% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jakub Mensik's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (40.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s advantage is driven most by recent record by level and his higher overall strength and surface fit. Watch the early service games and Mensik’s ability to convert free points from the big serve, as those will likely decide whether Rodionov can overcome fatigue and pressure.

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