Auckland New Zealand Hard Atp 250 Finals

Sebastian Baez vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #43
42%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #18
58%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #43 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #44 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #35 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-01-13

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #18 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #19 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #18 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #23 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #48 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 73.1
ELO Rating: 1281.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1680.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 415
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.3
Clay: 22.8
Grass: 27.8
Serve Rating: 34.3
Return Rating: 97.2

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 93.6
ELO Rating: 2130.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 326
Surface Strength:
Hard: 68.1
Clay: 48.1
Grass: 50.7
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 93.0

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Jakub Mensik
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Auckland 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) hard Auckland 65 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-1) hard Auckland 134 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Henry Bernet (2-1) hard Basel 149 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jesper de Jong (1-2) hard Shanghai 148 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The finals of the Auckland tournament are set to feature a compelling matchup between Sebastian Baez and Jakub Mensik on hard courts. With the tournament type being ATP 250, the stakes are high for both players. Jakub Mensik is predicted to emerge victorious with a probability of 57.64%, while Sebastian Baez holds a probability of 42.36% to win. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 23.17.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez currently holds a rank of 43 and has a form index of 73.09. His Elo rating stands at 1281.80, with a cumulative fatigue of 415 minutes from this tournament. On the other hand, Jakub Mensik, ranked 18, boasts a superior form index of 93.56 and an Elo rating of 2130.27, alongside a lower fatigue level of 326 minutes. A significant difference is noted in the mean serve index, with Mensik at 97.61 compared to Baez's 34.33, suggesting Mensik's serves will likely be more effective. The mean return indices are more closely matched, with Baez at 97.17 and Mensik at 93.03, indicating both players are proficient returners. In their last three matches, Baez has performed impressively, winning all three encounters convincingly against Marcos Giron, Ben Shelton, and Jenson Brooksby, without dropping a single set. Conversely, Mensik has also demonstrated strong form, winning all his last three matches, including a more challenging contest against Fabian Marozsan, where he had to secure a set against him. This consistency from both players sets the stage for an exciting final.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sebastian Baez - Jakub Mensik) -1.1 Most likely spread: -2 (Jakub Mensik wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 12.94 predicted aces, reflecting the hard court surface's suitability for serving, which typically allows for a balanced number of aces. Additionally, an expected 5.12 double faults may emerge, which aligns with the intensity of the final. Given Mensik's significantly higher mean serve index, he may likely contribute more to the aces prediction, potentially putting pressure on Baez's return game.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jakub Mensik's edge in serve strength and overall form positions him as the favorite in this matchup. Observers should pay close attention to his serving efficiency, as it will likely be a deciding factor in the outcome of the match.

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