Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Titouan Droguet

Rank: #110
17%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #28
83%
Expected Total Games: 40.5
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Ranking Trends

Titouan Droguet

  • Current #110 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #122 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #150 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #159 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #234 2025-05-26

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #28 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Titouan Droguet

Form Index: 38.8
ELO Rating: 1598.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1721.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.5
Clay: 16.8
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.7

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 32.2
ELO Rating: 1765.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1845.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.6
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 21.5
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.5

Recent Matches

Titouan Droguet
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Patrick Kypson (1-2) clay Rome 191 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano (2-1) clay Rome 140 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) clay Madrid 152 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (0-1) clay Madrid 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Otto Virtanen (2-1) clay Madrid 97 min

Jakub Mensik
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Titouan Droguet
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 128 on clay at the 2026 grand slam sets up a contrast in styles between France’s Titouan Droguet and Czech Jakub Mensik. The model strongly favors Mensik to advance — he is projected to win with an 82.75% probability while Droguet sits at 17.25%, with a predicted total of about 40.52 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Droguet arrives ranked 110 with an Elo of 1598.8, a solid mean serve index (95.07) and the tour’s strongest mean return figure among the two (89.66). His form index sits at 38.8 and he shows little tournament fatigue. His clay surface strength index is modest at 16.84, which suggests he may be less at ease in prolonged baseline exchanges on slow courts. Over his last three clay outings he pushed through a win against Juan Cruz Martin Manzano in Rome but suffered defeats to Benjamin Bonzi (Madrid) and Patrick Kypson (Rome), the latter a long 191-minute match. Mensik comes in as the higher-ranked player at 28 with an Elo of 1765.7. His mean serve index (95.27) and surface strength index (24.27) are comparable to Droguet’s serve but indicate slightly better clay comfort. His form index is 32.2 and he reports no fatigue. Recent results show a hard-fought win over Jan-Lennard Struff in Hamburg, alongside losses to Alexei Popyrin (Rome) and a short defeat to Ignacio Buse. The combination of higher ranking and a superior Elo rating is the primary statistical edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.5 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Titouan Droguet - Jakub Mensik) -3.4 Most likely spread: -4 (Jakub Mensik wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this meeting is moderate: predicted aces sit at 17.36 for the match. Clay typically reduces ace counts, so the predicted aces reflect the slow surface. The double faults prediction is 6.87 expected double faults; longer rallies and physical demands on clay can elevate double faults late in matches. Neither player has a markedly superior serve rating, so no single server is expected to dominate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.4 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.9 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Titouan Droguet's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (46.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s higher ranking and Elo, combined with a better clay surface strength, give him a clear advantage in this matchup. Watch how Mensik handles extended baseline exchanges and whether Droguet can turn his strong return numbers into early breaks — that tactical battle will likely decide the outcome.

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