Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

James Duckworth vs Dalibor Svrcina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

James Duckworth

Rank: #83
49%
VS

Dalibor Svrcina

Rank: #123
51%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Dalibor Svrcina

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Player Metrics

James Duckworth

Form Index: 27.6
ELO Rating: 727.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 80.8
Return Rating: 41.7

Dalibor Svrcina

Form Index: 29.0
ELO Rating: 630.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1520.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.6
Clay: 5.1
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 93.1

Recent Matches

James Duckworth

  • Last Match: vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Dallas 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Brisbane 146 min

Dalibor Svrcina

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
James Duckworth
vs
0
Dalibor Svrcina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Acapulco hard-court event in Mexico, Round of 32, James Duckworth meets Dalibor Svrcina in a matchup that pits a higher-ranked, higher-Elo veteran against a player with standout serve and return indices. The model favours Dalibor Svrcina (51.47%) over James Duckworth (48.53%), with a tight projected match that should total about 22.04 games.

Match Analysis

Duckworth enters ranked 83 with an Elo of 727.21, a solid mean serve index (80.76) and a modest mean return index (41.66). His form index sits at 27.58 and surface strength is low (5.09); fatigue is negligible. Svrcina is ranked 123 with a lower Elo (630.37) but posts much higher proprietary serve and return numbers: mean serve 95.61 and mean return 93.14. The difference in mean serve index (~14.8 points) and mean return index (~51.5 points) are both well over the 5-point threshold, which is notable given the otherwise similar low surface strength scores (Duckworth 5.09, Svrcina 5.57) and identical tournament fatigue (0.0). Recent form for both players is mixed over three matches on hard courts. Duckworth has one win (Dino Prizmic) and back-to-back losses to Jannik Sinner and Eliot Spizzirri, including long matches at the Australian Open. Svrcina also has one win (Nicolas Mejia) and losses to Rinky Hijikata and Jaume Munar; his last two losses bracket a quality win, indicating streaky results but consistent hard-court exposure. Match duration patterns show both have played extended contests recently, but neither carries in-tournament fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.0 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in James Duckworth versus Dalibor Svrcina. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in James Duckworth versus Dalibor Svrcina. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (James Duckworth - Dalibor Svrcina) +1.0 Most likely spread: +1 (James Duckworth wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in James Duckworth versus Dalibor Svrcina. Positive values indicate James Duckworth winning more games, negative values indicate Dalibor Svrcina winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in James Duckworth versus Dalibor Svrcina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is 12.6 total; the predicted aces skew higher because Svrcina’s mean serve index is substantially greater than Duckworth’s. Expected double faults are 3.65 for the match; the double faults prediction remains modest given both players’ profiles and the medium-paced surface. Hard courts generally produce a balanced number of aces compared with grass or clay, so predicted aces reflect that medium pace.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.6 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.6 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in James Duckworth versus Dalibor Svrcina. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in James Duckworth versus Dalibor Svrcina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in James Duckworth versus Dalibor Svrcina. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in James Duckworth versus Dalibor Svrcina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Svrcina’s edge in the model comes primarily from his markedly superior serve and return indices, which offset Duckworth’s higher rank and Elo. Key factor to watch: Svrcina’s serve-to-return efficiency — if his serve translates to free points, he’ll justify the narrow pre-match advantage.

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