Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Fabian Marozsan vs James Duckworth: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #63
66%
VS

James Duckworth

Rank: #86
34%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

Why the Model Favors Fabian Marozsan

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.2 Fabian Marozsan
Age +4.6 Fabian Marozsan
Recent form +3.1 Fabian Marozsan
Surface fit +2.8 Fabian Marozsan
Overall strength +1.9 Fabian Marozsan

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 66% for Fabian Marozsan. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 42.1
ELO Rating: 1649.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1690.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 189.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.3
Clay: 17.5
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.8

James Duckworth

Form Index: 53.1
ELO Rating: 1614.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 287.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.0
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 84.8

Recent Matches

Fabian Marozsan

James Duckworth

  • Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Winston Salem 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Winston Salem 112 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Quinn Vandecasteele (2-0) hard Winston Salem 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (1-2) hard Cincinnati 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs J.J. Wolf (2-0) hard Cincinnati 114 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Fabian Marozsan
vs
0
James Duckworth
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston-Salem quarterfinal action in North Carolina features Fabian Marozsan vs James Duckworth on outdoor hard courts at a 250-level tournament. The model favors Fabian Marozsan to win with a 65.66% probability, while James Duckworth is given a 34.34% chance. The match is expected to be relatively short with a projected total of 23.52 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Marozsan is driven primarily by his recent record at this level and age, with additional support from recent form and surface fit. Marozsan’s run at Winston-Salem includes wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Martin Damm, results that the explainability engine awarded 6.2 percentage points for recent record by level. The engine also credited Marozsan 4.6 points for age, favoring him overall. Marozsan sits at world No. 63 with an Elo of 1649.75. His proprietary form index reads 42.11 and his surface strength index on hard is 22.28. He has 189 minutes on court this week, a moderate fatigue total. Duckworth arrives ranked 86 with an Elo of 1614.75 and a higher form index of 53.13. His surface strength index is 19.97. He has been busy this week with 287 minutes on court, which increases his fatigue. Duckworth has won three straight matches here, all in straight sets, showing steady match play but heavier court time. Mean serve and return indexes are close between the two players. Marozsan’s mean serve index is 96.91 versus Duckworth’s 95.81, and mean return indexes are 87.81 and 84.85 respectively. Neither gap exceeds five points, so serve and return edges are marginal. Overall strength and surface fit tilt slightly toward Marozsan, which, combined with his key wins at this level, pushes the model recommendation his way.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Fabian Marozsan versus James Duckworth. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Fabian Marozsan versus James Duckworth. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Fabian Marozsan - James Duckworth) +1.5 Most likely spread: +1 (Fabian Marozsan wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Fabian Marozsan versus James Duckworth. Positive values indicate Fabian Marozsan winning more games, negative values indicate James Duckworth winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Fabian Marozsan versus James Duckworth. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 12.98 total, with predicted aces split 6.38 for Marozsan and 6.86 for Duckworth. The double faults prediction is 5.52 total, with expected double faults of 2.44 for Marozsan and 3.10 for Duckworth. On medium-paced hard courts, this level of predicted aces is typical. Neither player has a markedly higher serve rating, and the per player ace projections reflect a near even serving battle at the net.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Fabian Marozsan 6.4 + James Duckworth 6.9
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Fabian Marozsan 2.4 + James Duckworth 3.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Fabian Marozsan versus James Duckworth. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Fabian Marozsan versus James Duckworth. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Fabian Marozsan

Expected 6.4 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Fabian Marozsan serves in this match.
James Duckworth

Expected 6.9 aces

Probability distribution for the aces James Duckworth serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Fabian Marozsan versus James Duckworth. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Fabian Marozsan versus James Duckworth. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Fabian Marozsan

Expected 2.4 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Fabian Marozsan serves in this match.
James Duckworth

Expected 3.1 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults James Duckworth serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Fabian Marozsan's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (40.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Fabian Marozsan's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Marozsan’s edge comes foremost from his recent record at this level, which the model identified as the top driver. Watch fatigue and return efficiency as the deciding factors. If Duckworth’s heavier court time slows him late, Marozsan’s slight edge in overall strength and surface fit should be decisive.

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