Lorenzo Sonego vs James Duckworth: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Sonego comes mainly from his recent record by level and a favourable age adjustment, with secondary support from surface fit and serve and return metrics. Sonego shows a higher Elo at 1632.6 compared with Duckworth’s 1595.3, and a stronger surface strength index on hard courts (23.73 versus 18.30). That surface fit adds weight in Sonego’s favour. The model also gives a small boost to Sonego for serve and return balance, reflecting his slightly better mean return index of 87.48 against Duckworth’s 84.81. Neither player posts a serve index gap greater than five points, so there is no dominant server on paper. Rank and form are close. Duckworth sits at 86 in the rankings versus Sonego at 88. Form indices are similar, 48.64 for Duckworth and 46.57 for Sonego, which is why the model also registers a modest tilt toward Duckworth from recent form. Fatigue is a clear differentiator. Sonego has accumulated 271 minutes on court at this event compared with Duckworth’s 183, so endurance could be decisive in longer rallies or late set moments. Looking at the last three matches, both players arrived via two wins at Winston Salem. Sonego beat Mannarino and Herbert before a loss to Tiafoe in Cincinnati. Duckworth recorded straight set wins over Mariano Navone and Quinn Vandecasteele and a three set loss to Arthur Fery in Cincinnati.