Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Miomir Kecmanovic vs James Duckworth Prediction

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #61
58%
VS

James Duckworth

Rank: #64
42%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

Why the Model Favors Miomir Kecmanovic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.0 Miomir Kecmanovic
Age +4.0 Miomir Kecmanovic
Overall record & opposition quality +2.5 James Duckworth
Serve & return game +2.0 Miomir Kecmanovic
Recent form +2.0 James Duckworth

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Miomir Kecmanovic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #61 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #58 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #65 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #60 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-10-20

James Duckworth

  • Current #64 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #82 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #79 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #88 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #108 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 30.4
ELO Rating: 1531.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.0
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.4

James Duckworth

Form Index: 35.1
ELO Rating: 1591.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.2
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 84.2

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

James Duckworth
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Hubert Hurkacz (0-2) hard Shanghai 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (0-2) hard Chengdu 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (0-1) hard Winston Salem 59 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
0
James Duckworth
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Miomir Kecmanovic is a slight favourite, with the forecast giving him 58% to James Duckworth’s 42%. The expected total is 23.3 games in this Almaty Round of 32 match.

Match Analysis

Kecmanovic’s stronger recent record at this level and age profile are central to his advantage. He also has the better return game, which could help him make more of Duckworth’s service games rather than relying on a serving shootout. Duckworth’s overall record against opposition and recent form keep the gap narrow. The two are close in serving strength, while Duckworth’s higher surface-strength rating points to a credible hard-court challenge. His recent losses to Hubert Hurkacz and Lorenzo Sonego came against established opponents, but Kecmanovic has the clearer return advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Miomir Kecmanovic - James Duckworth) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Miomir Kecmanovic wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Duckworth is projected to hit 8.3 aces, compared with 6.9 for Kecmanovic, while their close serving profiles suggest the gap should be modest. Kecmanovic is projected for 2.3 double faults and Duckworth 3.1, giving Kecmanovic the lower expected error count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.7 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Miomir Kecmanovic 6.9 + James Duckworth 8.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Miomir Kecmanovic 2.3 + James Duckworth 3.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Miomir Kecmanovic

Expected 6.9 aces

James Duckworth

Expected 8.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Miomir Kecmanovic

Expected 2.3 double faults

James Duckworth

Expected 3.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Miomir Kecmanovic's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (34.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Duckworth’s best route to an upset is to turn his projected ace advantage into enough free points to blunt Kecmanovic’s stronger returning. If he cannot, Kecmanovic’s ability to pressure service games makes him the more likely winner.

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