Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Alexandre Muller vs Jan-Lennard Struff: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexandre Muller

Rank: #95
63%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #81
37%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Alexandre Muller

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Ranking Trends

Alexandre Muller

  • Current #95 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #52 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #44 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #39 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #39 2025-04-21

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #81 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #86 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #91 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #152 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #79 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Alexandre Muller

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 1608.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1628.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.6
Clay: 41.6
Grass: 40.7
Serve Rating: 75.2
Return Rating: 71.7

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 30.2
ELO Rating: 1455.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1466.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 38.2
Grass: 43.4
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Alexandre Muller
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Otto Virtanen (0-2) clay Barcelona 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Max Alcala Gurri (2-0) clay Barcelona 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 153 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 120 min

Jan-Lennard Struff
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexandre Muller
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, Spain — round of 128 on clay at a Masters 1000 — opens with Alexandre Muller vs Jan-Lennard Struff. The model backs Muller to prevail (62.51% chance) over Struff (37.49%), with a predicted total of about 23.6 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets outcome is likeliest.

Match Analysis

Muller (rank 95) arrives with a stronger Elo (1608.5) and a markedly better form index (51.06) than Struff (rank 81, Elo 1455.3, form 30.24). Both men show no accumulated fatigue from the event so freshness shouldn’t be an issue. Surface strength indices are close — Muller 41.6 vs Struff 38.2 — indicating neither has a pronounced clay-court edge on paper. Muller's mean serve index (75.2) is substantially lower than Struff’s (97.4), a gap of roughly 22 points; conversely Struff’s mean return index (89.8) also sits well above Muller’s (71.7), so their contrasting profiles — big server vs effective returner — will shape the tactical battle. Recent form trends favor Muller: across his last three matches on clay he has one solid win (Max Alcala Gurri) and two losses to higher-level opponents (Corentin Moutet, Otto Virtanen), while Struff has recorded three straight defeats in recent events, including clay losses in Monte Carlo and earlier hard-court exits. Those results, combined with Muller’s higher Elo and steadier recent performances, help explain the projected edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexandre Muller - Jan-Lennard Struff) -1.1 Most likely spread: -2 (Jan-Lennard Struff wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 14.9 for the match and the predicted double faults around 4.13. On clay, expected aces tend to be lower thanks to slower ball speed and higher bounce, so the predicted aces reflect that surface effect; still, Struff’s significantly higher serve rating could lift the predicted aces closer to the total shown. The expected double faults figure also aligns with clay’s longer rallies and physical toll, where pressure and fatigue can produce more unforced serving errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.9 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Muller’s higher Elo, better form index and stronger return metrics give him the edge against a big-serving Struff whose serve can still swing games. Key factor to watch: whether Struff’s serve holds up on clay against Muller’s return — if Muller breaks early, the match shape tilts decisively in his favor.

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