Jan Choinski vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for van de Zandschulp stems primarily from recent record by level, which alone shifts the prediction 5.4 percentage points toward him. That is supported by his higher Elo rating of 1691.84 versus Choinski’s 1549.78, and a stronger form index for van de Zandschulp at 44.38 compared with Choinski’s 34.57. Surface fit also favors van de Zandschulp by 4.7 points: his surface strength index is 28.36 while Choinski sits at 8.01, indicating better adaptation to hard courts. Serve and return game contributes another 4.7 points toward van de Zandschulp, backed by closely matched mean serve indices (Choinski 96.14, van de Zandschulp 95.34) and nearly identical mean return indices (Choinski 88.78, van de Zandschulp 88.72), so the margin is in overall execution rather than raw serving numbers. Rank and fatigue are neutral factors here. Choinski is ranked 75 and van de Zandschulp 71. Both arrive with zero cumulative tournament fatigue. Recent form is divergent. Choinski has lost his last three matches, including straight sets defeats in Cincinnati and Bastad and a three set loss in Winston Salem. Van de Zandschulp has two wins and one loss in his last three, beating Darderi and Vallejo on hard before a defeat to Benjamin Bonzi.