Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
95%
VS

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #104
5%
Expected Total Games: 21.7
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Ranking Trends

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #1 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-04-21

Benjamin Bonzi

  • Current #104 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #106 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #54 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #69 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #62 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 67.0
ELO Rating: 2526.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2628.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 78.4
Clay: 65.6
Grass: 68.5
Serve Rating: 65.1
Return Rating: 61.7

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 71.4
ELO Rating: 1612.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 275.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.4
Clay: 39.7
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 90.3

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Carlos Alcaraz (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 135 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 121 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 64 min

Benjamin Bonzi
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) clay Madrid 152 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Madrid 50 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Darwin Blanch (2-0) clay Madrid 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jesper de Jong (0-2) clay Barcelona 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 107 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jannik Sinner
vs
0
Benjamin Bonzi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Madrid Masters 1000 round of 64 on clay, top seed Jannik Sinner meets Benjamin Bonzi in a matchup that pits a clay-hardened world No. 1 against a lower-ranked, in-form challenger. The model strongly favors Sinner — predicted winner Jannik Sinner (94.74%) vs Benjamin Bonzi (5.26%) — with an expected total of about 21.7 games in the match, pointing to a straight-sets outcome and relatively short sets.

Match Analysis

Sinner arrives as the clear class act on paper: world No. 1, Elo 2526, surface strength index 65.6 and a mean serve index of 65.1. His recent clay results are impeccable, with straight-set wins over Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger‑Aliassime in Monte Carlo, showing both consistency and endurance (match times 135, 82, 92 minutes). Fatigue is zero for Sinner in this event, giving him a freshness advantage. Bonzi is ranked 104 with an Elo of 1612 but carries a higher form index (71.4) and exceptional proprietary serve/return indices (mean serve 97.8, mean return 90.3). Those serve/return numbers differ from Sinner’s by more than 5 points on both counts, and are notable against the context of his surface strength index (39.7) and accumulated fatigue (275 minutes already on court in Madrid). Bonzi has won three matches here — including a 152‑minute victory over Titouan Droguet — but the heavy workload and the lower clay surface rating make this a steep ask against a top-ranked opponent.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.7 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jannik Sinner - Benjamin Bonzi) +4.6 Most likely spread: +5 (Jannik Sinner wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 8.66 total for the match and the predicted aces will be influenced by clay’s slower, higher bounce which typically reduces free points from serves. The expected double faults total is 4.54; clay’s longer rallies and physical toll can elevate double faults, especially for a fatigued Bonzi. Given Bonzi’s much higher mean serve index, he may contribute a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, but surface and fatigue temper that edge.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.7 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sinner’s superior ranking, clay profile and freshness give him a decisive edge in Madrid. The key factor to watch is whether Bonzi’s high serve/return metrics can overcome his fatigue and lower clay strength early in rallies — if not, expect a short, efficient win for Sinner.

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