Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Jaume Munar vs Francisco Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jaume Munar

Rank: #44
27%
VS

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #21
73%
Expected Total Games: 36.8
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Why the Model Favors Francisco Cerundolo

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +8.4 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall strength +5.0 Francisco Cerundolo
Recent record by level +4.3 Francisco Cerundolo
Serve & return game +3.6 Jaume Munar
Head-to-head +1.6 Francisco Cerundolo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 73% for Francisco Cerundolo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 25.5
ELO Rating: 1568.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.3
Clay: 17.4
Grass: 16.2
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 94.4

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 50.7
ELO Rating: 1848.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1870.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.4
Clay: 27.6
Grass: 24.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Jaume Munar

Francisco Cerundolo

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jaume Munar
vs
1
Francisco Cerundolo
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Wimbledon in Great Britain, Round of 128 on grass, Francisco Cerundolo is the clear favorite against Jaume Munar in this grand slam opener. The model projects Cerundolo to win with a 72.84% probability (Munar 27.16%) and expects about 36.82 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Cerundolo comes mainly from recent form, overall strength and his recent record at this level. Cerundolo enters with a markedly higher form index (50.46 vs Munar’s 25.18) and a much stronger Elo (1847.6 vs 1568.2), factors that contributed +8.4 and +5.0 percentage points, respectively, toward his chance. He also has momentum on grass — three straight wins in London (including a long 182-minute match vs Tommy Paul) that pushed recent-record-by-level advantage (+4.3 points) in his favor. Munar’s small lift in the projection (+3.6 points toward him) comes from his serve and return metrics: he posts a mean serve index of 96.78 and a mean return index of 94.36, both strong figures. Both players report zero fatigue from the tournament so far. Surface strength indices are modest for both on grass (Munar 16.24, Cerundolo 24.87), with Cerundolo slightly better adapted. Munar’s last three matches show three straight losses (s’Hertogenbosch, Eastbourne and Roland Garros), while Cerundolo’s recent form is three wins on grass — that contrast is a pivotal context for this meeting.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.8 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jaume Munar versus Francisco Cerundolo. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jaume Munar versus Francisco Cerundolo. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jaume Munar - Francisco Cerundolo) -2.6 Most likely spread: -3 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jaume Munar versus Francisco Cerundolo. Positive values indicate Jaume Munar winning more games, negative values indicate Francisco Cerundolo winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jaume Munar versus Francisco Cerundolo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 14.37 total; predicted aces should be elevated given grass’s speed and low bounce, which favors free points from the serve. The expected double faults total is 9.3; double faults prediction is moderate, reflecting both players’ aggressive serving. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the ace count should come from overall serving aggression rather than a single dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.4 Most likely: 14 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 9.3 Most likely: 9 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jaume Munar versus Francisco Cerundolo. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jaume Munar versus Francisco Cerundolo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jaume Munar versus Francisco Cerundolo. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jaume Munar versus Francisco Cerundolo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jaume Munar's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (32.7%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Jaume Munar's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s recent form is the top driving factor behind the pick — his current streak and higher Elo give him the edge on grass. Watch whether Munar’s strong serve/return numbers can translate into early breaks; that will be the key variable that could upset the forecast.

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