Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Karen Khachanov vs Jaume Munar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #18
52%
VS

Jaume Munar

Rank: #37
48%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

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Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 2089.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1737.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 143.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.1
Clay: 17.3
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 71.7
Return Rating: 58.5

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 57.7
ELO Rating: 1358.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 71.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.9
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 11.4
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov

  • Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (2-1) hard Rotterdam 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Nishesh Basavareddy (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Michael Mmoh (0-2) hard Hong Kong 122 min

Jaume Munar

  • Last Match: vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (2-0) hard Rotterdam 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Dalibor Svrcina (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-1) hard Adelaide 148 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Jaume Munar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Rotterdam (hard, indoor, 500-level) projects to be tightly contested. The model favors Karen Khachanov to win with a 51.64% probability versus Jaume Munar at 48.36%, and the match is expected to last about 23.7 games.

Match Analysis

Khachanov enters with a higher ranking (18) and a substantially higher Elo (2089.10) compared with Munar (rank 37, Elo 1358.17). His form index (52.32) is slightly behind Munar’s (57.66), and Khachanov carries more cumulative fatigue from this event (143 minutes versus Munar’s 71), which could influence endurance late in rallies. Surface strength indices are low for both (Khachanov 10.12, Munar 13.89), suggesting neither has an overwhelming historical edge on this type of hard court. The statistical matchup highlights clear differences in serve and return profiles: Munar’s mean serve index (97.02) is markedly higher than Khachanov’s (71.67), and his mean return index (89.49) also exceeds Khachanov’s (58.46). Those gaps—both greater than five points—point to Munar being strong on service games and effective on return games in the model’s internal metrics. Recent results show Khachanov with two wins and one loss in his last three matches (including a three-set Rotterdam win over Jesper de Jong and a four-set loss to Luciano Darderi), while Munar is also 2-1 over his last three (a straight-sets Rotterdam win over Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, a clean loss to Casper Ruud, and a five-set win over Dalibor Svrcina).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Karen Khachanov versus Jaume Munar. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Karen Khachanov versus Jaume Munar. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Karen Khachanov - Jaume Munar) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Jaume Munar wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Karen Khachanov versus Jaume Munar. Positive values indicate Karen Khachanov winning more games, negative values indicate Jaume Munar winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Karen Khachanov versus Jaume Munar. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is relatively modest, with predicted aces at about 10.06 for the match; predicted double faults are expected at roughly 5.63. On a medium-paced hard court that produces a balanced number of free points, the expected aces figure aligns with the surface’s tendency to reward both servers and returners. Given Munar’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, which will be a factor in the overall tally and could affect break chances.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Karen Khachanov versus Jaume Munar. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Karen Khachanov versus Jaume Munar. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Karen Khachanov versus Jaume Munar. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Karen Khachanov versus Jaume Munar. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s edge in the projection stems from superior ranking and Elo despite Munar’s stronger serve/return indices and lower fatigue, producing only a narrow advantage. The key factor to watch is the service-return battle—how Munar’s high serve and return indices translate into points against Khachanov’s baseline power and experience.

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