Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Brooksby comes mainly from serve & return metrics and recent form. Brooksby posts a higher Elo (1592 vs 1495) and a stronger proprietary form index (36.72 vs 26.62), reflecting more consistent recent results. That statistical lead is supported by his high mean serve index (95.76) and top-tier mean return index (89.99), which together underpin the 3.5 percentage points credited to the serve & return game. Recent form itself adds roughly 3.2 points toward Brooksby: his last three recorded matches include two straight wins followed by a loss to Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon, whereas Moutet’s last three results show three straight defeats. Surface fit gives Brooksby a smaller edge (1.3 points); his surface strength index on hard is 17.65 versus Moutet’s 27.86, though both indices are modest on the proprietary 0–100 scale. Fatigue and recent workload slightly favor Moutet in the model (+1.0 point), yet both players show 0.0 cumulative minutes in this event; the model apparently factors other recent scheduling signals. Age also nudges the projection (+0.8 toward Brooksby) as a minor influence in the final probability. Both players have similar serving profiles—serve and return index gaps are well under 5 points—so expect rallies to be decided more by baseline control and return purpose than by sheer serving dominance. Brooksby’s stronger recent form and higher Elo are the clearest on-paper differentiators.