Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Shevchenko Prediction

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #93
51%
VS

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #97
49%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Jesper de Jong

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Ranking Trends

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #93 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #109 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #109 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #104 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #162 2024-05-06

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Current #97 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #82 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #64 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #58 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #60 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 38.9
ELO Rating: 661.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 207.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 6.0
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.2

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 47.1
ELO Rating: 651.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 184.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Alexander Shevchenko
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jesper de Jong
vs
0
Alexander Shevchenko
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This match between Jesper de Jong and Alexander Shevchenko takes place in the Round of 128 of the prestigious Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Italy, on clay surface. The predicted winner is Jesper de Jong, who has a 51.45% chance of winning compared to Shevchenko's 48.55%. The expected total number of games played in this encounter is 23.

Match Analysis

Jesper de Jong currently ranks 93rd, with a form index of 38.92 and an Elo rating of 661.91. His cumulative fatigue stands at 207 minutes, reflecting a challenging tournament thus far. De Jong's surface strength index is 6.03, while his mean serve index is notably strong at 97.75. Conversely, Alexander Shevchenko, ranked slightly higher at 97, has a form index of 47.11 and an Elo rating of 651.89. He exhibits less fatigue at 184 minutes, and his surface strength index is marginally better at 6.91. Shevchenko's mean serve index is 95.68, and his mean return index is quite impressive at 89.51, giving him an edge in returns compared to De Jong, whose return index is lower at 87.17. In their last three matches, De Jong's recent performances indicate mixed results, including a loss against Thiago Seyboth Wild and a win over Harold Mayot. In contrast, Shevchenko has shown better form with two consecutive victories against Marton Fucsovics and Juan Pablo Ficovich. This better recent form could provide Shevchenko with a psychological advantage going into the match.

Final Prediction

Jesper de Jong’s slight edge in serve strength may play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this matchup. However, Shevchenko's stronger recent performances and lower fatigue levels suggest that he could capitalize on any lapses from De Jong. Observers should monitor the effectiveness of each player's serve, as it will likely be a deciding factor in this closely contested match.

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