Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Jesper de Jong vs Jakub Mensik Prediction

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #79
32%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #19
68%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Ranking Trends

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #79 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #106 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #98 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #112 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #118 2024-09-30

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #19 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #17 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #24 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #48 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #65 2024-09-30

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 59.5
ELO Rating: 824.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 164.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 86.9

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 62.1
ELO Rating: 1270.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Jakub Mensik
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jesper de Jong
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the prestigious Masters 1000 tournament in Shanghai, Jesper de Jong faces Jakub Mensik on hard courts. The match promises to be an engaging contest, with Mensik favored to win, holding a probability of 68.27% compared to De Jong's 31.73%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Jakub Mensik, currently ranked 19th, has a superior Elo rating of 1270.94 compared to Jesper de Jong's 824.18. Mensik's form index of 62.12 slightly eclipses De Jong's 59.52, suggesting he is in slightly better form heading into this match. Notably, Mensik has no cumulative fatigue from the current tournament, while De Jong has logged 164 minutes on court, which may impact his performance. On the surface strength index, Mensik holds a significant advantage with a score of 13.76 over De Jong’s 6.36. While both players have comparable mean serve indices (Mensik at 95.78 and De Jong at 96.65), Mensik's mean return index of 87.52 gives him a slight edge over De Jong's 86.93. In their recent performances, Mensik has won two of his last three matches convincingly, including a two-set victory against Arthur Cazaux. In contrast, De Jong has experienced mixed results, winning two matches but showing signs of fatigue in his recent matches, including a hard-fought three-set battle against Yi Zhou.

Final Prediction

Jakub Mensik's combination of superior ranking, fresh legs, and a higher surface strength index gives him a distinct advantage heading into this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be De Jong’s ability to manage his fatigue and maintain his competitive edge throughout the match.

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