Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jesper de Jong vs Nuno Borges: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #102
33%
VS

Nuno Borges

Rank: #52
67%
Expected Total Games: 26.7
Predicted Winner: Nuno Borges

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Ranking Trends

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #102 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #88 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #77 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #79 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #93 2025-05-05

Nuno Borges

  • Current #52 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #45 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #47 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #38 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #40 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 30.6
ELO Rating: 1526.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1446.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 328.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.9
Clay: 20.2
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 91.9

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 31.4
ELO Rating: 1575.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1624.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.5
Clay: 17.6
Grass: 17.8
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Nuno Borges
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jesper de Jong
vs
0
Nuno Borges
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — Round of 128 on clay at a Masters 1000 event. The model favors Nuno Borges to advance, with a 67.33% chance of victory versus Jesper de Jong’s 32.67%. The match is projected to be relatively concise for a best-of-three on clay, with an expected total of about 26.7 games.

Match Analysis

On paper Borges holds the ranking and Elo edge — world No. 52 and an Elo of 1575.7 versus de Jong at No. 102 and an Elo of 1526.6. Form indices are nearly identical (de Jong 30.64, Borges 31.37), but fatigue is a clear dividing line: de Jong carries 328 minutes on court in this event while Borges shows 0 cumulative minutes. Surface strength indices are low for both (de Jong 20.17, Borges 17.56), suggesting neither has a pronounced clay advantage based on that metric. Serve metrics are close — mean serve indices are virtually identical — but return figures diverge: de Jong posts a mean return index of 91.93 compared with Borges’s 85.94, a difference of roughly six points that could be meaningful on clay where rallies and returns matter. Recent form backs that up: de Jong has two wins in Rome (beating Pedro Martínez and Hugo Dellien) including a 179-minute match, while dropping a three-setter in Madrid; Borges has a mixed run — a big win over Etcheverry in Barcelona followed by setbacks in Barcelona and Madrid.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.7 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jesper de Jong - Nuno Borges) -0.1 Most likely spread: -1 (Nuno Borges wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at about 9.54 total aces, and the double faults prediction is 3.86 expected double faults. Given clay’s slower ball and higher bounce, the predicted aces are relatively modest and expected double faults may creep up as players tire. Neither player has a markedly superior serve index that would drastically raise the predicted aces, so the surface effect likely suppresses big-serving numbers.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.5 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jesper de Jong's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (41.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Borges’s higher ranking and Elo plus zero reported fatigue give him the modeled edge, even as de Jong’s superior return numbers create a clear tactical threat. The key factor to watch is de Jong’s returning aggression against Borges’s serve holds — if de Jong converts early break chances, the upset probability will rise.

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