Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Hijikata is driven mainly by his overall strength metrics and slightly better surface fit, while de Jong gains credit from recent results and a fatigue profile the model prefers. On paper Hijikata holds the higher Elo (1677.38 vs 1661.08) and a stronger surface strength index for grass (14.65 vs 7.18), which together tilt the matchup toward him. De Jong counters with a better recent record at higher levels and a model-assessed fatigue advantage that modestly pushes the probability his way. Looking closer at the numbers: de Jong is ranked 73 to Hijikata’s 82, but form_index favors Hijikata (44.73 vs 38.67). Both players show zero cumulative tournament fatigue, though Hijikata’s recent schedule included a long 167-minute grass match while de Jong’s recent minutes came on clay. Serve ratings are almost identical (mean serve 95.96 vs 95.29, difference under 5 points), so neither should dominate purely on serve power; however de Jong’s mean return index is notably higher (93.04 vs 87.02), a gap greater than 5 points that could make him more effective on opponents’ second serves. Over their last three matches de Jong beat Khachanov and Cina before a straight-sets loss to Zverev at Roland Garros; Hijikata won two grass matches in London then fell to Humbert.