Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Lehecka comes mainly from surface fit (+3.0 percentage points) and age (+2.0 points), with additional weight from overall strength (+1.5). Lehecka arrives ranked 19 with an Elo of 1861, a form index of 58.2, and cumulative tournament fatigue of 348 minutes. His surface strength index on hard is 40.31, noticeably higher than Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas is ranked 53, with an Elo of 1814, a form index of 69.5, and the same 348 minutes of fatigue. His surface strength index on hard is 33.46, a deficit that helps explain the surface fit advantage for Lehecka. The mean serve index gap is small (Lehecka 97.57, Tsitsipas 95.95), so no big serving imbalance is expected. Return ratings are also close (Lehecka 87.79, Tsitsipas 85.76). Recent form shows both players winning two matches at the US Open. Lehecka beat Pablo Carreno Busta and Toby Samuel after an earlier loss to Arthur Fils in Cincinnati. Tsitsipas has beaten Lloyd Harris and Arthur Fils at Flushing Meadows, after a loss in Winston Salem. The model also notes some advantage for Tsitsipas from recent record by level and overall opposition quality, which together push his probability up by about 2.8 points, but not enough to overcome Lehecka's surface and age advantages.