Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Lehecka comes mainly from overall strength and recent performances against similar opposition. Overall strength contributes 9.4 percentage points to the prediction, while recent record by level adds another 7.0 points. Lehecka is the higher ranked player at 19, with an Elo of 1833.5 and a form index of 50.2. His surface strength index on hard is 38.7. He carries moderate fatigue from the tournament with 174 minutes on court. Samuel sits at ranking 110, Elo 1724.3, and a stronger short term form index of 74.8, but his surface strength index is lower at 24.4 and his cumulative fatigue is much higher at 696 minutes. Serve and return metrics also favor Lehecka modestly and add 4.2 points to the model. Lehecka posts a mean serve index of 97.63 and a mean return index of 87.75. Samuel’s mean serve index is 92.84 and return index is 88.90. The serve and return figures are close enough that neither player holds a glaring statistical advantage on serve. Over the last three matches Lehecka has two wins and one loss, including a recent US Open win over Pablo Carreno Busta. Samuel arrives on a three match winning run at this event, but those victories come with a heavy minutes load that shows up in his fatigue figure.