Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #122
41%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #54
59%
Expected Total Games: 39.5
Predicted Winner: Juan Manuel Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #122 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #90 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #71 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #60 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #55 2025-05-26

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current #54 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #70 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #85 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #88 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #109 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 34.0
ELO Rating: 1533.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1516.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.7
Clay: 20.3
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 94.2

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 33.3
ELO Rating: 1566.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.8
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Cristian Garin (0-2) clay Rome 134 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Madrid 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) clay Barcelona 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Barcelona 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris offers a classic clay test as Jacob Fearnley and Juan Manuel Cerundolo meet in the Round of 128 at this grand slam. The model gives Cerundolo the edge: 59.13% to win versus 40.87% for Fearnley, with a predicted total of about 39.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper Cerundolo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 54) with the stronger Elo (1566.7) compared with Fearnley (No. 122, Elo 1533.7). Both players show similar recent form indices (33.96 for Fearnley, 33.32 for Cerundolo) and neither carries fatigue from earlier rounds (0.0 minutes). Surface strength indices are low for both (Fearnley 20.27, Cerundolo 20.72), suggesting neither has a pronounced clay advantage. Their serving profiles are nearly identical by the mean serve index (Fearnley 95.12, Cerundolo 94.98) and the gap in return ratings does not exceed five points, though Fearnley’s mean return index (94.22) is marginally higher than Cerundolo’s (89.52). Recent results give Fearnley some momentum—two wins in his last three matches at Rome, including straight sets over Shintaro Mochizuki and a three-set win versus Aleksandar Kovacevic—before a 155-minute loss to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Cerundolo has been more uneven: a win against Daniel Altmaier in Madrid followed by straight-set defeats to Luciano Darderi and Cristian Garin in his most recent outings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.5 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jacob Fearnley - Juan Manuel Cerundolo) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 11.99 for the match and the predicted double faults are 10.29. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower because the slower surface and higher bounce reduce free points, while the expected double faults can climb as long rallies and fatigue set in. With serve ratings almost neck-and-neck, no single player is expected to dominate the ace count—so the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect a scrappier, error-prone clay battle.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.0 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 10.3 Most likely: 10 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jacob Fearnley's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (24.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s higher ranking and Elo give him the narrow advantage, but Fearnley’s superior return metric could be decisive in breaking serve on a slow surface. The key factor to watch will be how well each converts break opportunities—on clay, that often decides these tight early-round matches.

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