Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #80
32%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #22
68%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current #80 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #85 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #85 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #109 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #127 2025-02-17

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #22 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #34 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #45 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #61 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 29.1
ELO Rating: 655.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.0
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 70.5
Return Rating: 77.2

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 64.5
ELO Rating: 1648.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1641.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rio clay event in Brazil, round of 32 action pits Juan Manuel Cerundolo against Luciano Darderi in an ATP 500-level tournament. The model favors Luciano Darderi (67.59%) over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (32.41%), with a predicted total of 23.27 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives ranked 80 with a form index of 29.08 and an Elo of 655.49; his tournament fatigue is 0.0. His surface strength index on clay is 7.51, his mean serve index 70.51 and mean return index 77.21. Darderi is currently ranked 22 with a much higher form index of 64.50 and an Elo of 1647.98, also with zero tournament fatigue. His surface strength index is 12.84, mean serve index 97.07 and mean return index 87.36. The mean serve index gap (~26.6 points) is substantial and the mean return index gap (~10.1 points) also favors Darderi; both differences are large enough to influence tactics and outcomes. Over the last three matches, Cerundolo has one win (over Daniel Altmaier) and two losses (to Pedro Martinez and Jordan Thompson), including long recent matches on clay and hard courts. Darderi’s recent run shows two straight wins (Sebastian Baez and Pedro Martinez) before a loss to Francisco Cerundolo; his last three matches were all on clay. The contrasting recent form and much higher Elo support the projection that Darderi is the stronger, more consistent player coming into this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Luciano Darderi wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 23.35 total; the predicted aces skew toward Darderi given his much higher serve index. On clay, fewer flat winners are typical, so the predicted aces remain moderated by surface conditions. The double faults prediction is 6.58 total; the expected double faults may rise during long rallies and physically demanding points on clay, and a big-serving player under pressure can contribute disproportionately to that number.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 23.4 Most likely: 24 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s superior Elo, form index and dominant serve/return metrics give him the clear edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch is how often Darderi’s serve converts into quick free points—if Cerundolo can neutralize the serve with returns, the dynamics could shift.

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