Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Kamil Majchrzak vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #57
34%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #58
66%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

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Ranking Trends

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Current #57 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #62 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #61 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #109 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #120 2025-03-17

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #58 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #52 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #47 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #47 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #48 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 30.5
ELO Rating: 880.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1555.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 65.6
Return Rating: 66.0

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 50.4
ELO Rating: 1170.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 8.4
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 91.2

Recent Matches

Kamil Majchrzak
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Miomir Kecmanovic
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kamil Majchrzak
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Miami, FL — round of 128 on hard courts at a Masters 1000 event. Miomir Kecmanovic is the projected winner with a 66.14% chance, while Kamil Majchrzak carries a 33.86% probability. The model expects a relatively short contest, about 24.39 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper the two are similarly ranked (Majchrzak 57, Kecmanovic 58), but underlying metrics strongly favor Kecmanovic. His Elo sits at 1,170.77 versus Majchrzak’s 880.89, and his form index (50.43) is well above Majchrzak’s 30.53. Neither player arrives with tournament fatigue. Kecmanovic also has the edge in surface strength (9.87 to 5.92), suggesting he adapts a touch better to hard courts here. Serve and return profiles sharply separate the pair. Kecmanovic’s mean serve index (97.86) towers over Majchrzak’s 65.60 — a gap large enough to drive match dynamics. His mean return index (91.16) is likewise markedly better than Majchrzak’s 66.01, so Kecmanovic threatens both with serve dominance and aggressive returning. Over the last three matches, Majchrzak has one win (over Perricard) and two losses, including a competitive three-set match against Djokovic at Indian Wells. Kecmanovic’s recent form is mixed as well: a straight-sets win over Altmaier bookended by two three-set losses, showing he can close matches but has been stretched.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kamil Majchrzak - Miomir Kecmanovic) +0.6 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction leans toward a high count: predicted aces for the match are 21.23, driven primarily by Kecmanovic’s heavy serve. On this medium-paced hard court, that number is plausible—hard courts reward big servers more than clay but less than grass. The double faults prediction is modest; expected double faults are 4.86 for the match, a level consistent with aggressive serving from one player and conservative serving from the other.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s much stronger serve-return combination and superior Elo/form give him the clear edge and explain the two-to-one probability split. Watch his serve placement and early return games — if he converts a high share of his service holds, the match is likely to stay short and decisive.

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