Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #15
65%
VS

Arthur Gea

Rank: #140
35%
Expected Total Games: 40.7
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

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Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #15 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #18 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #9 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #24 2025-05-26

Arthur Gea

  • Current #140 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #161 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #226 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #247 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #309 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 37.2
ELO Rating: 1694.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1693.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.3
Clay: 25.5
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 91.6

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 41.2
ELO Rating: 1596.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1634.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.2
Clay: 8.4
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 93.9
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (1-2) clay Hamburg 133 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-1) clay Hamburg 158 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (1-2) clay Rome 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Dino Prizmic (2-0) clay Rome 117 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) clay Rome 148 min

Arthur Gea
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Arthur Gea
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — opening round on clay at the 2026 Grand Slam sees No.15 Karen Khachanov meet No.140 Arthur Gea in a matchup that pits experience against in-form momentum. The model favors Khachanov to advance (64.53% chance) over Gea (35.47%), with a projected total of about 40.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Khachanov arrives with a clear ranking and experience edge (rank 15, Elo 1694.1) and a strong serving and returning profile (mean serve index 95.98, mean return index 91.64). His surface strength index on clay is moderate at 25.49 and he’s fresh with zero minutes of tournament fatigue recorded. Gea, ranked 140 with an Elo of 1596.3, posts solid recent form (form index 41.17) but a much lower surface strength index on clay (8.36). His serve and return indices (93.92 and 87.13) are respectable and close enough to Khachanov’s that they suggest service games will remain competitive rather than one-sided. Recent match patterns underscore those profiles. Khachanov’s last three matches on clay produced one comfortable win (vs Gaston) and two tough losses (to Humbert and Ruud) in long matches, indicating he can be pushed in extended rallies. Gea is coming off three consecutive wins in Hamburg on clay, including two victories of long duration, suggesting confidence and stamina. Both have logged lengthy recent matches, so early physical sharpness and consistency will matter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.7 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Karen Khachanov - Arthur Gea) +1.8 Most likely spread: +1 (Karen Khachanov wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This is an aces prediction that leans toward a modest tally: the model’s predicted aces for the match is 15.88, reflecting decent serving but reduced punch on slow clay. The double faults prediction is 8.24 expected double faults, higher than on faster courts because clay’s longer rallies and physical toll can increase risk errors. Neither player has a dramatically superior serve rating, so the ace count should be shared rather than dominated by one server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.2 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Karen Khachanov's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (35.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s higher ranking, superior Elo and stronger return numbers give him the statistical edge on clay, while Gea’s recent streak makes him a dangerous opponent. Watch Khachanov’s return games and Gea’s ability to hold under pressure — those will decide whether the match follows the projected 40–41 game script.

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