Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Alexander Bublik comes mainly from overall strength (+5.6 percentage points), a factor reflected in his top-15 ranking (No. 11) and greater tour pedigree despite marginally lower Elo than Jacquet. That advantage is tempered by two sizable offsets: Jacquet’s better surface fit (+4.0) and superior recent record by level (+3.2), which push the probabilities back toward him. Recent form was also a small positive for Bublik (+2.0) in the model’s calculus, while overall record and opposition quality nudged toward Jacquet (+2.2). Looking at the raw numbers: Jacquet (rank 139) arrives with a high form index (81.02) and an Elo of 1708.3, but he has accumulated heavy fatigue (696 minutes) through long wins at this event. Bublik (rank 11) posts a lower form index (31.26) and a slightly lower Elo (1692.7) but is far fresher with just 174 minutes logged. Surface strength favors Bublik numerically (33.74) over Jacquet (22.53), though Jacquet’s recent grass results have been strong. Their mean serve indices are close (Jacquet 94.93, Bublik 96.59), so no single server dominates on paper, but Jacquet’s mean return index (93.78) is notably higher than Bublik’s (86.34) by more than five points. Over the last three matches, Jacquet has three straight wins at Wimbledon, whereas Bublik has one recent five-set win and two earlier grass losses.