Hangzhou China Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Kyrian Jacquet vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Kyrian Jacquet

Rank: #110
28%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #25
72%
Expected Total Games: 25.5
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Why the Model Favors Andrey Rublev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.4 Andrey Rublev
Recent form +5.3 Andrey Rublev
Overall strength +4.8 Andrey Rublev
Surface fit +3.3 Andrey Rublev
Serve & return game +2.1 Andrey Rublev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 72% for Andrey Rublev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Kyrian Jacquet

  • Current #110 2026-09-14
  • 3 mo ago #145 2026-06-15
  • 6 mo ago #146 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #138 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #183 2025-09-22

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #25 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-06-22
  • 6 mo ago #16 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-09-22

Player Metrics

Kyrian Jacquet

Form Index: 58.3
ELO Rating: 1650.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1697.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 365.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 18.3
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 89.5

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 41.1
ELO Rating: 1755.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1820.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 249.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.2
Clay: 37.2
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Kyrian Jacquet
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-1) hard Hangzhou 172 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) hard Hangzhou 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Merida (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Otto Virtanen (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (0-2) hard Cincinnati 72 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kyrian Jacquet
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Andrey Rublev is favoured in the Hangzhou Semifinals, with a 72% win probability to Kyrian Jacquet’s 28%. The forecast points to 25.5 total games.

Match Analysis

The ranking gap, 25th for Rublev and 110th for Jacquet, reflects the difference in their overall strength. Rublev also has the stronger hard-court profile, giving him an advantage on this surface even though the serve and return numbers are relatively close. Jacquet’s recent run gives him a solid counterpoint: he has won all three matches in Hangzhou, including straight-set wins over Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Fabian Marozsan. He has spent 365 minutes on court this week, compared with 249 for Rublev, so he also carries the heavier workload into the semifinal.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.5 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kyrian Jacquet - Andrey Rublev) -2.4 Most likely spread: -3 (Andrey Rublev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Rublev is projected to hit 8.6 aces and 3.0 double faults, while Jacquet is projected for 6.5 aces and 3.7 double faults. Rublev’s slightly stronger serve profile fits his modest ace advantage, while Jacquet has the higher expected double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.5 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Kyrian Jacquet 6.5 + Andrey Rublev 8.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Kyrian Jacquet 3.7 + Andrey Rublev 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 6.5 aces

Andrey Rublev

Expected 8.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 3.7 double faults

Andrey Rublev

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Kyrian Jacquet's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (39.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jacquet’s stronger return profile is the specific threat to Rublev’s forecast. If it lets him put sustained pressure on Rublev’s service games, his winning run in Hangzhou gives him a credible route to an upset.

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