Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Kyrian Jacquet vs Luciano Darderi Prediction

Kyrian Jacquet

Rank: #86
47%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #19
53%
Expected Total Games: 26.2
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Why the Model Favors Luciano Darderi

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +5.3 Luciano Darderi
Recent form +3.1 Kyrian Jacquet
Serve & return game +2.6 Kyrian Jacquet
Overall record & opposition quality +2.1 Luciano Darderi
Surface fit +1.4 Kyrian Jacquet

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Luciano Darderi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Kyrian Jacquet

  • Current #86 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #139 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #149 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #137 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #182 2025-09-29

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #19 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #19 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #29 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Kyrian Jacquet

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 1661.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 54.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.4
Clay: 18.3
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.2

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1802.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1805.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 108.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.3
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Kyrian Jacquet
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Luciano Darderi
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kyrian Jacquet
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Luciano Darderi is a narrow favourite, taking 53% of the win probability to Kyrian Jacquet’s 47%. The Round of 16 match is projected to reach 26.2 games, pointing to a contest with room for either player to take control.

Match Analysis

Darderi’s stronger overall level is the main reason he is favoured, and his straight-set win over Casper Ruud in Tokyo reinforces his credentials. Jacquet, though, arrives off a straight-set win over Holger Rune, a result that supports the recent-form case in his favour. Jacquet’s serve-and-return balance and better hard-court fit give him a credible route to keep Darderi under pressure, despite the ranking gap, 86th to 19th. Darderi has spent 108 minutes on court in Tokyo, twice Jacquet’s 54, a workload gap that could matter late.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.2 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kyrian Jacquet - Luciano Darderi) -0.1 Most likely spread: -1 (Luciano Darderi wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Jacquet is projected for 8.0 aces and 3.7 double faults, while Darderi is projected for 6.7 aces and 3.2 double faults. Their serve levels are almost even, which fits the close totals, with Jacquet forecast slightly higher in both categories.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.2 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Kyrian Jacquet 8.0 + Luciano Darderi 6.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.9 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Kyrian Jacquet 3.7 + Luciano Darderi 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 8.0 aces

Luciano Darderi

Expected 6.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 3.7 double faults

Luciano Darderi

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Kyrian Jacquet's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

The forecast could turn if Jacquet’s stronger return keeps Darderi from making full use of his higher overall level. That serve-and-return balance is Jacquet’s strongest counterweight.

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