Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Kyrian Jacquet vs Tomas Machac Prediction

Kyrian Jacquet

Rank: #79
37%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #71
63%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

Why the Model Favors Tomas Machac

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +6.6 Tomas Machac
Recent record by level +3.5 Tomas Machac
Overall strength +2.3 Tomas Machac
Surface fit +1.2 Tomas Machac
Serve & return game +1.0 Tomas Machac

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Tomas Machac. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Kyrian Jacquet

  • Current #79 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #121 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #147 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #102 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #156 2025-11-03

Tomas Machac

  • Current #71 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #58 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #41 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #28 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Kyrian Jacquet

Form Index: 44.9
ELO Rating: 1679.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1717.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.3
Clay: 18.3
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 89.3

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 49.7
ELO Rating: 1679.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1737.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 169.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.4
Clay: 24.9
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Kyrian Jacquet
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Marseille 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) hard Marseille 116 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Mmoh (1-0) hard Marseille 54 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (2-0) hard Marseille 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Rei Sakamoto (1-2) hard Shanghai 166 min

Tomas Machac
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Paris 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Landaluce (2-0) hard Paris 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) hard Vienna 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Vienna 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Almaty 151 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kyrian Jacquet
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Machac is favored at 63% to Jacquet’s 37%, with 25.7 total games projected. The forecast gives him the advantage in this Paris Masters Round of 64 match.

Match Analysis

Machac’s recent run in Paris is the clearest separator: he has won two straight matches in straight sets. Jacquet has also shown he can beat strong opposition, with a win over Matteo Berrettini, but his latest result was a loss to Brandon Nakashima. Machac ranks 71st, eight places above Jacquet, and has a slight edge on hard courts. Jacquet’s return is the stronger part of his game, however, which gives him a way to make Machac work through service games. Machac has played 169 minutes in the tournament so far, while Jacquet has no tournament court time recorded.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kyrian Jacquet - Tomas Machac) -1.3 Most likely spread: -2 (Tomas Machac wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Jacquet is projected to hit 7.2 aces and Machac 5.2. Their serve strengths are closely matched, so that expected ace gap is modest, while the hard court’s consistent bounce gives both a steady surface to serve on. Double faults are projected at 2.9 for Jacquet and 2.5 for Machac.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Kyrian Jacquet 7.2 + Tomas Machac 5.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Kyrian Jacquet 2.9 + Tomas Machac 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 7.2 aces

Tomas Machac

Expected 5.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 2.9 double faults

Tomas Machac

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Kyrian Jacquet's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jacquet’s return could narrow the gap if he consistently puts pressure on Machac’s delivery. If Machac can keep his recent level in Paris, his more reliable results give him the advantage.

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