Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Learner Tien vs Damir Dzumhur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Learner Tien

Rank: #21
59%
VS

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #87
41%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Learner Tien

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Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 34.9
ELO Rating: 1746.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.1
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 16.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 92.8

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 39.0
ELO Rating: 1554.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1529.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.6
Clay: 15.0
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Learner Tien

Damir Dzumhur

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Learner Tien
vs
0
Damir Dzumhur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000 on clay, round of 64 action pits 21-ranked Learner Tien against veteran Damir Dzumhur. The model gives Tien the edge — a 58.87% chance to win versus 41.13% for Dzumhur — with a projected total of about 26.9 games in the match, indicating a likely two-set contest with competitive service holds.

Match Analysis

Tien arrives with a clear ranking and Elo advantage (rank 21, Elo 1746 vs Dzumhur rank 87, Elo 1555). His form index (34.9) is slightly below Dzumhur’s (39.0), but Tien’s higher Elo and lack of fatigue (0 minutes on court in this event) leave him fresher for Rome’s physical clay battles. Dzumhur’s surface strength index is marginally higher (15.03 vs Tien’s 11.40), suggesting a touch more comfort on clay despite his lower overall standing. Both players post similar serve and return profiles: mean serve indexes are close (Tien 95.36, Dzumhur 94.93) and mean return indexes (Tien 92.77, Dzumhur 90.04) show no single dominant serving or returning advantage beyond marginal differences. Over the last three outings Tien has one win and two defeats (including recent losses in Madrid and Houston), with his lone victory coming in a longer three-set encounter. Dzumhur has been more consistent in recent results with two wins and one loss, including a 90-minute opening-round win in Rome — but that match also contributes to his 90 minutes of tournament fatigue, a factor that could matter on slow, attritional clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Learner Tien versus Damir Dzumhur. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Learner Tien versus Damir Dzumhur. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Learner Tien - Damir Dzumhur) -2.5 Most likely spread: -3 (Damir Dzumhur wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Learner Tien versus Damir Dzumhur. Positive values indicate Learner Tien winning more games, negative values indicate Damir Dzumhur winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Learner Tien versus Damir Dzumhur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 7.63 for the match while the predicted double faults total 4.26. On clay, expected aces are depressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, and the predicted aces reflect that tendency. Neither player shows a significantly higher serve rating to push ace totals dramatically higher, while the expected double faults note the fatigue element—particularly for Dzumhur—could nudge error-prone service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.6 Most likely: 7 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Learner Tien versus Damir Dzumhur. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Learner Tien versus Damir Dzumhur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Learner Tien versus Damir Dzumhur. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Learner Tien versus Damir Dzumhur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Learner Tien's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (36.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Learner Tien's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Tien’s higher ranking, superior Elo and lack of tournament fatigue give him the edge in this matchup. Keep an eye on Dzumhur’s movement and serve consistency late in rallies; his accumulated minutes in Rome could be the decisive factor.

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