Lloyd Harris vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Tsitsipas stems mainly from recent record by level, which adds 9.3 percentage points toward him, supplemented by overall strength (4.5 points) and recent form (2.5 points). Those drivers align with Tsitsipas’s higher Elo at 1787.96 and his superior ranking at 53, compared with Harris at rank 139 and Elo 1665.82. The model also gives smaller boosts for overall record and opposition quality, and for age, together nudging the prediction further toward Tsitsipas. Stat lines show contrasting profiles. Harris arrives with a higher form index at 72.56 versus Tsitsipas’s 61.41, but Harris carries heavy fatigue from this event at 696 minutes on court, while Tsitsipas has only 174 minutes. Surface strength indexes are similar, 26.17 for Harris and 30.72 for Tsitsipas. Serve and return indices are close, with mean serve 96.29 for Harris and 95.99 for Tsitsipas, and mean return 89.11 for Harris versus 85.78 for Tsitsipas, so no single serving advantage dominates. Over the last three matches Harris has been unbeaten at the US Open, winning three straight matches. Tsitsipas has two wins in his latest three, with a loss to Aleksandar Kovacevic in Winston Salem before rebounding at the Open.