Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #7
72%
VS

Raphael Collignon

Rank: #84
28%
Expected Total Games: 38.5
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

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Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 57.3
ELO Rating: 3862.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1762.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.1
Clay: 33.0
Grass: 31.8
Serve Rating: 66.4
Return Rating: 69.2

Raphael Collignon

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 775.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 5.5
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 94.7

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti

Raphael Collignon

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Raphael Collignon
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Lorenzo Musetti and Raphael Collignon at the Australian Open marks an exciting clash in the Round of 128 on hard courts. With Musetti holding a significant advantage, the prediction favors him with a 71.83% probability of winning compared to Collignon’s 28.17%. The expected total number of games to be played in this match is approximately 38.52.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti currently ranks 7th in the world, showcasing a solid form index of 57.29 and an impressive Elo rating of 3862.19. He has a fatigue level of 0, indicating he is fresh and ready to compete. Moreover, his surface strength index of 23.10 suggests he is well-suited for hard courts, contributing to his mean serve index of 66.38 and a mean return index of 69.21. In contrast, Raphael Collignon, ranked 84th, has a lower form index of 41.45 and an Elo rating of 775.59. His surface strength index of only 8.18 implies lesser effectiveness on hard courts, though he holds a strong mean serve index of 97.63 and a mean return index of 94.71. The significant difference in serve indices (over 5 points) indicates that Collignon has the edge in serving ability, which could play a crucial role in the match. In their recent performances, Musetti has faced ups and downs; he lost his last match against Alexander Bublik but secured victories against Andrey Rublev and Coleman Wong prior to that. Collignon, on the other hand, enters the match after losing his last two encounters against Andrea Vavassori and Brandon Nakashima, though he did manage a win against Grigor Dimitrov in the match before that. This trend suggests that Musetti might be more battle-tested despite his recent loss.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.5 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Lorenzo Musetti versus Raphael Collignon. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Lorenzo Musetti versus Raphael Collignon. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Lorenzo Musetti - Raphael Collignon) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Raphael Collignon wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Lorenzo Musetti versus Raphael Collignon. Positive values indicate Lorenzo Musetti winning more games, negative values indicate Raphael Collignon winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Lorenzo Musetti versus Raphael Collignon. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces for this match is around 12.1, with both players potentially contributing to this count due to the hard court surface, which supports a balanced number of aces. The predicted double faults are estimated at 4.45, reflecting the pressures of serving on this medium-paced surface. Given Collignon's significantly higher mean serve index, he might have a greater influence on the aces prediction, potentially skewing the ace count in his favor.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.1 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Lorenzo Musetti versus Raphael Collignon. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Lorenzo Musetti versus Raphael Collignon. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Lorenzo Musetti versus Raphael Collignon. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Lorenzo Musetti versus Raphael Collignon. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Musetti is favored to win due to his superior ranking, overall performance, and competitive edge on hard courts. One key factor to watch will be how Collignon's serve holds up against Musetti's strong return game, as this may dictate the flow of the match and the number of aces produced.

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