Estoril Portugal Clay Atp 250 Semifinals

Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luca Van Assche

Rank: #78
40%
VS

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #109
60%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Hugo Gaston

Why the Model Favors Hugo Gaston

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.8 Hugo Gaston
Serve & return game +3.1 Hugo Gaston
Age +2.2 Luca Van Assche
Surface fit +1.6 Luca Van Assche
Fatigue & recent workload +1.6 Hugo Gaston

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Hugo Gaston. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Luca Van Assche

  • Current #78 2026-07-20
  • 3 mo ago #98 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #165 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #165 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #192 2025-07-21

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #109 2026-07-20
  • 3 mo ago #115 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #93 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #113 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #99 2025-07-21

Player Metrics

Luca Van Assche

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 1555.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 472.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 17.1
Grass: 2.0
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 90.4

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 60.5
ELO Rating: 1624.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 198.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 14.6
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 93.7
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Luca Van Assche
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Hugo Gaston
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tiago Torres (2-0) clay Estoril 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-0) clay Estoril 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (0-0) clay Estoril 25 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (0-2) clay Bastad 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Luca Van Assche
vs
0
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Estoril semifinals in Portugal on clay, Hugo Gaston is narrowly favored over Luca Van Assche in this ATP 250-level match. The model projects Gaston to win with 59.89% probability versus 40.11% for Van Assche, and it expects about 24.44 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Gaston comes mainly from his stronger recent record at this level and a slight advantage in serve-and-return interplay. Gaston’s form index (60.5) and higher Elo (1624.7) point to a player peaking at the right moment, while Van Assche carries a better tour ranking (78) but a lower form index (46.4) and lower Elo (1555.7). The explainability engine also notes fatigue and recent workload favoring Gaston — he has accumulated 198 minutes in the event versus Van Assche’s heavy 472 minutes, which has a measurable impact on the forecast. Both players profile well for clay: Van Assche’s surface strength index is 17.06 versus Gaston’s 14.65, a small edge for Van Assche. Serve and return metrics are close (mean serve: Van Assche 94.88, Gaston 93.68; mean return: Van Assche 90.44, Gaston 88.30) so no single side dominates on serve. Recent form shows Van Assche coming through three tough, three-set wins at Estoril (long matches of 206, 135 and 131 minutes), demonstrating resilience but added wear. Gaston’s last two matches were straight-set wins (101 and 72 minutes) and a shorter recorded match earlier in the week, indicating fresher legs and more controlled outings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luca Van Assche - Hugo Gaston) -1.0 Most likely spread: -1 (Hugo Gaston wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is modest: the model’s predicted aces total for the match is 5.43, consistent with clay’s tendency to suppress fast serves. The expected double faults are 5.61; clay rallies and fatigue can elevate double faults late in matches. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the ace count should be distributed fairly evenly rather than dominated by one big server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.4 Most likely: 5 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luca Van Assche's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (28.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Gaston’s superior recent record at this level is the top model driver and gives him the edge, combined with fresher legs through the tournament. The key factor to watch is fatigue: Van Assche’s heavy minutes could blunt his return aggression or increase late double faults, shifting tight games toward Gaston.

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