Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #22
59%
VS

Dalibor Svrcina

Rank: #134
41%
Expected Total Games: 36.5
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Why the Model Favors Luciano Darderi

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +4.3 Luciano Darderi
Surface fit +3.1 Luciano Darderi
Overall record & opposition quality +1.9 Luciano Darderi
Recent record by level +1.9 Luciano Darderi
Fatigue & recent workload +1.7 Luciano Darderi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Luciano Darderi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 54.7
ELO Rating: 1739.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.2
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.0

Dalibor Svrcina

Form Index: 64.0
ELO Rating: 1660.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.9
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 6.7
Serve Rating: 93.2
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi

  • Last Match: vs Harry Wendelken (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Winston Salem 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (2-1) hard Winston Salem 140 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (0-2) hard Cincinnati 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Toronto 77 min

Dalibor Svrcina

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
1
Dalibor Svrcina
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, Round of 64 on hard courts, Luciano Darderi is forecast to edge Dalibor Svrcina. The model gives Darderi a 59.39% chance to win against Svrcina at 40.61%. The match is expected to be moderately contested, with a projected total of about 36.54 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Darderi comes mainly from overall strength and better surface fit. Darderi arrives as world number 22 with an Elo of 1739.3 and a strong mean serve index of 96.15. Svrcina is ranked 134 with an Elo of 1660.6 and a serve index of 93.18. Both players show similar hard court surface strength, with Darderi at 25.18 and Svrcina at 24.90. Fatigue also tilts toward Darderi. He has logged 174 minutes in the tournament so far, while Svrcina has accumulated 696 minutes, which the model treats as a meaningful workload advantage for Darderi. Form and recent results are mixed but slightly favor Darderi in the model’s composite. Darderi’s form index is 54.67 and his recent slate is two wins and one loss in the last three matches, including a four set win in the last round. Svrcina posts a higher form index at 64.02 and comes in undefeated over his last three matches at this event, all wins. The model also credits Darderi for stronger historical opposition and consistency at this level. Serve and return indices are close between the two, so breaks and baseline exchanges should play a decisive role.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.5 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Luciano Darderi versus Dalibor Svrcina. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Luciano Darderi versus Dalibor Svrcina. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luciano Darderi - Dalibor Svrcina) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Luciano Darderi versus Dalibor Svrcina. Positive values indicate Luciano Darderi winning more games, negative values indicate Dalibor Svrcina winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Luciano Darderi versus Dalibor Svrcina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for about 12.25 total aces in the match, with Darderi responsible for roughly 7.28 and Svrcina for 4.99. The predicted aces reflect a medium-paced hard court that rewards both servers and returners. The double faults prediction totals 10.09 for the match, split as 4.44 for Darderi and 5.65 for Svrcina. These expected double faults suggest some pressure on serve during tight games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Luciano Darderi 7.3 + Dalibor Svrcina 5.0
Expected Total Double Faults 10.1 Most likely: 9 double faults Per player: Luciano Darderi 4.4 + Dalibor Svrcina 5.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Luciano Darderi versus Dalibor Svrcina. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Luciano Darderi versus Dalibor Svrcina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Luciano Darderi

Expected 7.3 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Luciano Darderi serves in this match.
Dalibor Svrcina

Expected 5.0 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Dalibor Svrcina serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Luciano Darderi versus Dalibor Svrcina. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Luciano Darderi versus Dalibor Svrcina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Luciano Darderi

Expected 4.4 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Luciano Darderi serves in this match.
Dalibor Svrcina

Expected 5.7 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Dalibor Svrcina serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luciano Darderi's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (21.1%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Luciano Darderi's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Darderi’s projected advantage is rooted chiefly in overall strength, supported by higher ranking and a lighter workload. Watch the second set of the match for signs of fatigue from Svrcina, as that could be the decisive factor.

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