Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Darderi stems mainly from his overall strength and better surface fit. Darderi is ranked 22 with an Elo of 1712.59 and a form index of 40.77. His surface strength index on hard courts is 22.16 and he arrives with zero minutes of fatigue from this event. Wendelken is ranked 196 with an Elo of 1593.87 and a higher form index of 59.23, but his surface strength index is slightly lower at 20.66 and he carries 522 minutes of fatigue into the match. Those differences help explain the 6.7 percentage point boost from overall strength and the 3.4 point contribution from surface fit toward Darderi. Serve and return metrics also favor Darderi modestly and contribute to the prediction. Darderi’s mean serve index is 96.20 and his mean return index is 88.96. Wendelken’s mean serve index is 92.45 and his mean return index is 86.67. Recent form adds another small edge to Darderi despite Wendelken’s streak at this tournament. Over the last three matches Darderi has one win and two losses, including a lengthy win over Mattia Bellucci and losses to higher rated opponents. Wendelken has won his three US Open matches so far, all in long affairs, which explains his accumulated fatigue but also shows resilience at this event.